Pick against the spread for Chiefs-Eagles

In many seasons, the space's Super Bowl selection takes place around 6pm on Thursdays before the big game.

That's not the case this time. Rather, the pick was already released on September 4th in the 2024 NFL Special Section.

Those who purchased the Eagles prognosis against the Chiefs at Sunday's Super Bowl will have the opportunity to hold a +6600 (66/1) ticket at BETMGM and double down or hedge to guarantee a substantial profit.

It would be great if I were one of those people, but I wanted to tie up too much money for five months, with many of the preseason Super Bowl teams falling below .500 or a quarterback who has been injured over the years. I had a lottery ticket.

The other thing is that this bet hasn't won yet. All the Eagles have to do is defeat the Chiefs, the two-time defending champions who are in the 3-peat cusp of the NFL's first Super Bowl. They have to find a way to solve Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed.

Below are some of the reasons why I believe the Eagles will do that.

L Saquon Barkley: The former giant, which causes owner John Mara to lose a lot of sleep, has changed the offense in Philadelphia. Currently, Bellcow Runner is operating behind a good offensive line, and his advantage is only useful to make the Eagles' other weapons, AJ Brown, Dallas Gaedart and Devonta Smith.

Berkley ran for 2,005 yards and became the ninth to hit that milestone. He needed 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson's 40-year-old record, but was ruled out from a pointless final game along with most other starters for the Eagles.

How wonderful was Berkley? He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in the regular season and raised it to 6.7 yards per carry in the playoffs. It's easy to do math and see how easy it is for the Eagles to get their first down, move the chain, move the clock, and get the ball out of Mahomes's hands.

But Berkley is not just a grinder, but he is also a home run batsman. He had a 70-yard touchdown run for 72 yards in the Los Angeles game against the Rams. His dance cards also include 78 yards (playoffs vs. Rams), 68, 65, 60 (playoffs vs. Commander), 59 and 55 runs.

Even if they know he's getting the ball, defense can't stop him. Playoff touchdown vs Washington appeared in the Eagles' first play from the game's scrimmage. LA's 70 yards came to their first play in the second half.

The overall numbers are amazing. 14 games (out of 19) are at least 14 games with 100 yards, at least 8 games with 146 yards, and average 129 yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense, which was good against regular season driving, was handled in the playoffs. The Texans ran for 149 yards with 5.1 yards per carry in the divisional round, and Bill rolled up 147 yards with 4.6 yards per carry before mysteriously leaving James Cook.

l refs: Of course I'll go here! The host dynamics dominate conversations from the past two weeks heading towards the Super Bowl.

This all began two years ago with the Super Bowl LVII. The Eagles' defensive retention penalty against James Bradbury essentially sealed Kansas City's 38-35 victory.

Then, for the 2023 season, a handful of decisive calls became the Chiefs' way. In this column, I enjoyed the conspiracy theory that the league plays the relationship between Travisquelse Taylor Swift. He profited from increased ratings and jersey sales, and succumbed to hell to win Taylor and her millions. Super Bowl fans.

In this past season, the oddest thing like The Raiders Game when the Raiders game neutralised the Raiders fumble and called out an illegal game-ending shift instead of the false start that gave them a chance on a long field goal. There was a call. To win the game.

And in the playoffs, all eyes were hits at Mahomes (ESPN's Troy Aikman got hooked on one of them), two personal foul penalties for the Texans, and the Bills game contest and controversy It was located in a spot that exudes the flavor.

Over the past few days, Rich Eisen, the leading man on the NFL network, has given comedian Bill Burr a platform for the radio show for 21 years, questioning whether the game has been fixed. Commissioner Roger Goodell has destroyed “a ridiculous theory.” And REFS union chief Scott Green said Goodell was “spot-on” and “shaming and ridiculous” a 17-man host crew of 138 officials made up of one team. It's insulting and ridiculous to hear a conspiracy theory that they are conspiring to help.”

As Shakespeare wrote in “Hamlet” about 620 years ago, “women are protesting too much.”

But seriously, this is the point. The heat of the spotlight is in the bibliography and is all the calls made in this game. The reputation and integrity of the NFL are at issue. I think the Eagles will get a review of fair whi, fair flag and fair replays. And if that's the case, that should be enough…

lAnalysis…I like the Eagles game slightly.

I don't usually give more words to deeper numbers in my pick descriptions during the season, but there's one more important statistic than the others. It is a DVOA, or defensive adjustment over average. This metric measures the success of NFL teams compared to league averages by adjusting down and distance, opponent strength, and even field conditions.

In the regular season and playoff overall DVOA, the Eagles ranked third and the Chiefs ranked sixth. In the regular season, the Eagles were fifth and the Chiefs were eighth.

On the offensive, the Chiefs ranked 8th in the season and the Eagles ranked 13th. Defensively, Philadelphia was No. 1, Kansas City No. 12.

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Most of these numbers give the Eagles a small edge. It's not that much, but if the spread is this small, that's enough. At the very least, it gives you the concept that the Chiefs are not an omnipotent and invincible team.

l Parallel: Finally, this Super Bowl matchup has a similar vibe to the Eagle Spa Triot in February 2018. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were gold standard for quarterback coaches. (Seattle and Seattle and 28-3 comeback vs Atlanta) seemed unable to lose it.

The Eagles defeated 41-33 with backup QB Nick Forress and the legendary Philadelphia special trick play.

Picks: Eagles +1.5 and over 48.5 (betmgm)

Eagles 30, Chiefs 27.

This week's lock: Eagles (Rock 10-11, 2024-25).

Championship Week: Overall it was 3-1 (2-0 side, 1-1 over/under).