The newspaper's Dave Brezow gives his predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs and Commanders vs. Lions.
Welcome to the best weekend of football for my money that the NFL offers every year.
4 games in 2 days. All the powerhouses are here, including the Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Ravens, and Bills. They will be joined by the upstart Commanders and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, as well as the still-developing Texans and second-year QB CJ Stroud.
And the Rams, led by the Super Bowl-winning coaching and quarterback duo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, just defeated the Vikings in a game that was moved to Arizona because of the Los Angeles wildfires.
Let's take a look from above:
Saturday
Houston Texans (+8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs. 41.5 or above: It's an interesting matchup both on the field and on the betting screen.
When the teams met at Arrowhead four days before Christmas, the 14-1 Chiefs had a narrow 3.5-point advantage over the 9-5 Texans at home. The reason the line was small was because Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a serious ankle injury in last week's game against Cleveland.
Mahomes, questionable all week, came on after Stroud's interception and led an 11-play, 66-yard, just over six-minute drive that ended with a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs won 27-19 and covered the deficit, but it wasn't enough here.
It's easy for Chiefs supporters to argue that with Mahomes healthy and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo just seeing what Houston can do, they can outdo the Texans even more this time around.
Texans bettors can point out that the team was still in a tough spot, even though wide receiver Tank Dell suffered a serious injury in the third quarter trailing 17-16. The latter is where I land, and I think the Texans will benefit from their recent visit to Arrowhead.
The Anders were 5-1 in Wild Card weekend, but those numbers seem low. On Dec. 21, the teams combined for 46 points, but Mahomes was sick and missed on at least six drives out of 10 plays.
Chiefs, 27 wins, 20 losses.
Detroit Lions (-9.5) vs. Washington Commanders. Less than 55.5: The most impressive coaching feat I've seen this season was performed by Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.
In Week 18, with a first-round bye on the line for first place in the NFC North, Glenn's defense turned Sam Darnold into a pumpkin and left the Vikings' flying machine in pieces on the ground. Not only that, Glenn showed how to do the same thing when the Rams KO'd the Vikings in the playoffs.
It's surprising that we're talking about the Lions' defense considering the huge players the team has on the other side of the ball. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmil Gibbs should be able to do a lot of damage if they can get the ball back quickly and in good field position.
Both lines and totals are very unstable, making it difficult for both handicappers and bettors. Will the Lions be able to get away enough from Jaden Daniels' backdoor coverage to vaccinate their backers? Will the commanders' offensive line be able to contribute enough to outweigh the sheer numbers? But that's what makes it so fun.
Lions, 38 wins, 17 losses.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
this week's rock: Lions (Lock 8-9 in 2024-25).
last week: 5-7 (2-4 sides, 3-4 over/under).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Dave Brezow is one of the longest-tenured NFL handicappers in the post, having been drafted 31 years ago. He won the Post's NFL betting rankings in 2021 and most recently won the playoffs in 2023.
