The Super Bowl is supposed to be the culmination of the NFL season, but sometimes it's an anticlimax. It happens when two marquee teams and quarterbacks meet in the league championship game, such as Sunday when Josh Allen and the Bills meet Patrick Mahomes and the Arrowhead Chiefs.
This is becoming a near-annual dance for Allen and Mahomes, who matched up in the playoffs after the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons. The Chiefs have won all three of these games, covering the spread each time. The overs hit in each clash, with two of the league's top quarterbacks combining for 62, 78, and 51 points, respectively.
The story is different in the regular season where Allen is 4-1 both against Mahomes and against the spread. That tally includes the Bills' 30-21 victory over the Chiefs on Nov. 17 at Orchard Park. That game will be remembered as Kansas City's only legitimate loss of the season. Their only other loss came in Week 18 when Mahomes and many starters were rested.
I'm intentionally avoiding digging deep into the stats for that Week 11 game for a number of reasons. For one, Buffalo's regular season success hasn't carried over to the postseason vs. Kansas City. And two, Mahomes threw two interceptions in that game – his first pass and his last. It's not a good bet to expect him to throw two more Sundays, not when he was intercepted just eight times on 697 postseason throws, and with eight touchdown passes and eight touchdown passes in three playoff meetings. It has zero intercept on the bill.
I had my suspicions that this might finally be Allen's year to finally get the bill and win the Super Bowl. But now that the moment of truth has arrived, I don't think they have enough answers for players across the board.
I have to have the full strength of Isaiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Chris Jones, and George Karaftis on my side.
Then there is the issue of officials. I can't say the two questionable flags on the clash with Mahomes won the Texans a win last week, but they certainly helped destroy the cover at +8.5. Troy Aikman disgusted and rightly called the second penalty on the ABC/ESPN broadcast.
Will the backlash from Aikman and across the NFL landscape affect how Clete Blakeman calls this game? Will the bill at least get a neutral shake? We'll have to wait and see, but according to Chiefs fan site Kckingdom, Mahomes is 6-5 in games hosted by Blakeman, well below his career winning percentage.
Finally, rest and wear is an issue in this round. The Chiefs enjoyed a bye and played one postseason game without travel. The Bills got past Denver but were in a deadly struggle with Baltimore, requiring Mark Andrews to drop a two-point conversion to survive.
Now they have to pack up the wagons for Kansas City and have one less day to prepare, just like the Chiefs played last Saturday.
In total, the low 20s temperature is not too inhibiting, but I think the defense also has a say. The Chiefs have played six of their last seven games with all final scores below this number.
pick: Chiefs – 2 and Under 48 (ESPN BET)
Chief, 23-20.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) Washington Commander, over 47.5
Understood. Many people I respect in the football handicapping industry are grabbing the points of this game with both hands and predicting an outright victory for Washington in some cases.
As you go through the various layers of this selection, quite a few point in the commander's direction.
The teams split two meetings in the NFC East, with the Eagles winning 26-18 at LINC in Week 11 and coming back from a 14-0 deficit to win 36-33 in Week 16.
The quarterback matchup could be Washington's biggest advantage here. Jaden Daniels threw five touchdown passes against the Eagles, then followed suit with the start of a historic run through the playoffs.
Washington had odds of 150/1 to win the Super Bowl before the season. According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, the 1979 Buccaneers lost the NFC Championship, the 2021 Bengals fell to the Super Bowl, and the 1999 Rams lost all the way, so the odds of High ever winning it are 3. According to one team.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee injury. He's on track to play, but certainly looked less mobile in the late stages of last week's win over the Rams.
But there are some main reasons why I support Boyd.
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– It's easy to pin on the Eagles' loss to the Commander-in-Chief, but it's their only 'L' in the past 15 games.
– It's also fun to romanticize Daniels and the Commanders as upstart darlings, but they were about to get cooked by the Bucs until Baker Mayfield fumbled. I don't think the Eagles will be very generous.
– This is Washington's fourth straight road game since Jan. 5. I haven't traveled to Philadelphia since December 22nd.
– Saquon Barkley. He is a reliable constant. He ran for 146 yards against Washington, then 150, and already has 119 and 205 in two playoff games.
Eagles, 31-23.
This week's lock: Chiefs (9-11 lock in 2024-25)
last week: 1-6-1 (1-2-1 side, 0-4 over/under).
Why trust New York Postbet?
Dave Blezow is one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers in the post, with a pick 31 years ago. He won the Post's NFL betting standings in 2021 and most recently the playoffs in 2023.
