The NFL season enters Week 7, and Sunday brings new value-packed information to the player prop market.
Last week, they won 3 wins and 0 losses in the games I selected for this column, making them 13 wins and 2 losses on the season. Overall, player props had a 50-36 win/loss record this year, with a profit of +17.92 units.
All of my selections are tracked on Wayne_Bets' Action Network app.
Recommended: Week 7 NFL Player Props
Joe Mixon, 62.5+ rushing yards (-120, DraftKings)
Texans vs. Packers, 1:00 p.m. ET
This line starts at 56.5, which is an incredibly sweet number, but I still think there is value at the current mark.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik wants to run a run-oriented early-down offense, and Houston selected Mixon as a key addition in the offseason. That role was seen in Week 1, with the running back finishing with an impressive 30 carries for 159 yards and one touchdown.
After being sidelined with an injury in Week 2, Mixon returned last week. In a game that quickly turned into a blowout loss, he had just 13 carries as he worked his way back to full health.
Expect his volume to increase this week against the Packers. Houston uses him where he does best: inside-zone runs from under center. The Bengals primarily ran their offense out of the shotgun formation, so he was rarely used in that role.
The Packers are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 21st in yards allowed to the running back line and 27th in defensive stuff percentage, according to FTN Fantasy. They are allowing 4.58 yards per carry to zone runs, ninth-most in the NFL, according to fantasy point data.
I believe Mixon's minimum line for what should be a close game is 15 attempts, but he has cleared 62.5 rushing yards on 15 or more attempts in 76% of his career games, including 11 Continuous game overs are also included.
Kenneth Walker, 65.5+ rushing yards (-120, BetMGM)
Seahawks vs. Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Walker has had a quiet two games on the field, but this could be an incredible bounce-back spot. The Seahawks' running backs have been great this season, leading the NFL in missed tackles per attempt. This should allow him to have success against the Falcons, who rank 24th in tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Falcons rank 28th in stuffing percentage and 29th in rushing success rate, so Walker should have no problem producing lots of yards in this game. Atlanta has allowed opposing starting running backs to cross this yard line in every game this season.
Walker should benefit from Seattle's mini-bye after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. He suffered an oblique injury earlier this year and missed two games, but should be fully healthy and ready to take on a monster job.
The Seahawks lead the NFL in higher-than-expected passing rates. Still, their coaching staff has repeatedly emphasized moving forward with their rushing attack, and I expect them to feed Walker in this game against a vulnerable Atlanta run defense.
Diontae Johnson, 68.5+ receiving yards (-120, Caesars)
Panthers vs. Commanders, 4:05 p.m. ET
This line is a jump from what we bet on Johnson last week, but I still back him in the perfect spot for production.
Since Andy Dalton took over as the starting quarterback, Johnson ranks third in the NFL with an impressive 39.6% first-read target share, according to Fantasy Points Data.
I have repeatedly targeted commanding defensemen at wide receiver props. According to FTN Fantasy, they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA against WR1.
They also have the seventh-highest man coverage percentage in the NFL, with Johnson averaging 2.5 yards per route run in man coverage, ranking ninth out of 37 eligible receivers.
The Panthers are trailing by 7.5 points with an over/under of 51.5 points, making for a perfect game environment for pass production from the Carolina offense. Look for Johnson to have another big game on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, 73.5+ receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Lions vs. Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
After two quiet games where the Lions were able to rely entirely on the run game, they're getting a great buy low in St. Brown this week. The Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, so we should expect Detroit to run a more balanced offense on Sunday.
The Vikings blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL and ran two high safeties at the highest clip to prevent giving up big plays. That gives St. Brown plenty of room to make plays across the middle of the field, and he's averaged a whopping 2.56 yards per route against second-tier defenses this season.
Minnesota has had Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Jaden Reed and Deebo Samuel all have 90 or more receiving yards this season, and St. Brown should be next in line.
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He's cleared that mark in 14 of the past 20 games, and with a fast track of over/under 50 points indoors, expect a lot of production from the Lions' receivers.
(Please note that lines fluctuate throughout the week, sometimes dramatically. So if you need help determining whether your number is still playable, please contact us at @wayne_sports_. )
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
