An infectious disease is prevalent in the baseball world. Anyone involved in games knows its existence. Clubs are working on treatments. However, in some ways we are still unable to fully grasp the extent of the problem.
There were 166 players on the injured list for Thursday’s domestic opener, but I asked 10 baseball insiders to guess how many pitchers there will be. No one got him within 20 points of the correct answer. Most followed a similar logic to that of Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. He reasoned that although half the roster is pitchers, since pitching is a more dangerous profession, “half of them are going to be 83, so we’re going to go up to 105.”
When Hefner was told the correct answer was 132, he gasped, “Oh my god.”
That’s right, 79.5 percent of IL stints were for pitchers. And the trend line is not good either. In the last four 162-game seasons, 122, 96, 88 and 85 IL pitchers have started the season. In 2019, only 66.9% of pitchers were injured starting the season.
There’s a bigger picture here that teams and their sports scientists are attacking to keep pitchers better healthy. But no organization is willing to give up its current competitive advantage by attacking key issues, or as Adam Ottavino said. [pitching injury] It’s a runaway train because of the speed. ”
Yes, the average value of fastballs has been rising year by year, but it was also recognized that batters are fully aware of this and are making adjustments to better hit even the highest-quality fastballs. Therefore, the pitcher spins the ball with greater force and frequency.
And, as Hefner said, “If you’re doing something unnatural, you’re going to get more injuries.” [throwing a ball with force overhand] And you try to do that as hard as you can, and you try to make each pitch as awkward as possible, and that’s what the industry is paying for. This is how teams won the World Series and we are a copycat league and everyone is trying to do the same thing. Therefore, the result is an injury. ”
For example, another consequence of teams pursuing things like the above (speed, movement) is that MLB may need to step in as the adult in the room. The league already mandates a maximum of 13 pitchers, but is considering increasing the number to 12 or 11. The hope is that with fewer pitchers available, starting pitchers in particular will not put as much effort into every pitch. To endure physically to cover more innings.
But that’s the big picture, and some may be wondering if having to throw more often within the pitch clock is having a negative impact on a pitcher’s health. In the small picture, the 2024 season is scheduled to be played, but having “only” 13 pitchers admitted to the staff makes the team nervous. Because having this many injuries to pitchers at the beginning of the season only means more injuries to come.
“That’s a scary way to think about it,” Brewers GM Matt Arnold said when asked what comes to mind when thinking about how to cover roughly 1,450 innings to finish a 162-game season. said.
An AL executive said: I think even the best teams are willing to admit that they count innings, not just good pitching. [in staff construction]. You need 1,400 to 1,450 innings, but you look at your staff and say, “What’s going to happen?” …Who on earth could find value in 1,450 innings? At some point, you’re saving up innings that you hope won’t turn out badly. ”
Executives are currently spending as much time in spring training developing the next 13 pitchers as they did with the 13 needed to start the season. Last season, 801 pitchers were used, with an additional 62 position players pitching. The Astros and Giants used the fewest pitchers with 24, while the Athletics used the most with 41. In other words, you’ll be lucky if you need 13 people, about twice that number, by opening day.
So management is trying to decide how to maintain depth options. For example, Dennis Santana pitched well enough to force the Yankees out of the spring. He’s on a minor league deal but doesn’t have any options. If a player is on the roster at the start of the season, such as Tommy Kahnle, who is scheduled to return in a few weeks, he cannot be demoted to the minors without becoming eligible for (and possibly losing) waivers. Santana doesn’t have an opt-out until July 1st, so the Yankees could keep Santana in the minor leagues for a while in case of an emergency. Every team does a version of this.
As Kahnle’s timeline also shows, not all injuries are created equal. Among the 132 pitchers selected for the season-opening IL, some, like Kahnle, played slowly in spring training with the big picture in mind. Other players, including aces Sandy Alcantara (Miami) and Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay), have already been scheduled to play this year due to the timing of Tommy John surgery.
However, the question is whether the currently injured pitcher will be able to return. One National League executive said: But even if it’s just five starts, it’s a month of starts, especially if it’s a player you don’t believe in. ” Therefore, a quality Plan B is important. For example, the Mets will likely be without ace Kodai Chiga for at least two months. So it will test Hefner’s belief that the Mets have a more reliable pitching staff in the minor leagues than they have in any of his five seasons as a pitching coach. The same goes for the Yankees, with the exception of ace Gerrit Cole.
Much of the season feels like March Madness. Will they be able to survive and advance until the top pitchers return? For example, the Astros tied the Rays for the most players on the IL in the season opener with nine, and all nine were pitchers. They believe Justin Verlander will be back in the next few weeks. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will have an even longer wait.
Conversely, both the Tigers and Braves had one lower-MLB player on the IL. Both were pitchers, but far from the mainstays of Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit) and Angel Perdomo (Atlanta). Of course, this is a contagious disease. Therefore, today’s healthy teams can quickly turn things around.
So when asked if he values pitching depth over anything else in his job, David Stearns, who developed four Mets pitchers on the IL, said, “Yes.” He added that he is “constantly thinking about it because he has had injuries and his pitching performance has fluctuated.” That’s what happens over the course of 6 months. ”
It happens more than ever.
