Friday’s MLB schedule targeted two props, and two American League pitchers are trending in the right direction and have exceeded expectations.
Let’s get straight to the point.
Friday’s top MLB player prop bets
Corbin Burnes, 7.5+ strikeouts (-124, FanDuel)
Since joining the Orioles, Barnes has only made one start with more than 7.5 strikeouts, and that was on Opening Day against the Angels.
But Friday’s matchup against Oakland will undoubtedly be the most favorable matchup so far this season.
His strikeout prop line is supported by a career-low 10% strikeout rate.
So why is it necessary to strengthen a pitcher whose strikeout number has decreased over the past three seasons? There are several reasons.
Barnes’ average velocity is as high as it has been since his 2021 Cy Young season, and the spin rate on his cutter, curveball and slider is up from a year ago in Milwaukee.
Only the slider (54%) has seen an increase in strikeouts compared to last season, but the other two pitches have been the mainstays of his elite arsenal in recent years.
I fully expect these pitchers to return to the elite form they showed with the Brewers.
Barnes faces an elite showdown with the Athletics, who boast the second-highest strikeout rate (28.4%) and third-lowest wRC+ (81) in baseball.
Bailey Over 15.5 outs or more (-105, bet 365)
Ober pitched five innings (15 outs) on less than 60 pitches in his last start, then ran into trouble in the sixth inning.
He ended up finishing the sixth (18 outs) on just 82 pitches, easily picking up more than 15.5 outs against Detroit.
His first start of the season, which lasted just 1 1/2 innings, will undoubtedly skew the numbers for early 2024.
On Friday, he picked up an Angels lineup that was close to league average with a WRC+ of 99, including a heroic start from Mike Trout (10 home runs, .237/.321/.598 slash line). ing.
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If the team realizes they should let Trout walk until he settles down, this should be an offense with few power threats and well below league average.
Ober’s 2024 stats are still skewed by an abysmal start that doesn’t represent his true talent level.
He currently has at least 80 pitches and six innings (18 outs) in back-to-back starts and expects that to become the norm going forward.
