Tonight, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will unveil its latest rankings for the third time this season.
This round of rankings could be particularly intriguing.
The top three teams from last week—Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M—are still in the same positions. They all performed strongly against their opponent, who started the previous week with a record of 3-6. Notably, the Aggies staged an impressive comeback, recovering from a 30-3 halftime deficit. However, that challenging first half likely keeps them in third place behind the other two for another week.
Things start to get interesting from here.
If Alabama loses to Oklahoma, it will drop from its fourth place standing, but the extent of that drop is uncertain. The Crimson Tide fell to No. 10 in the AP Top 25, which suggests they’ll probably be placed behind the Sooners by the committee. But there’s speculation about whether they’ll see themselves ranked lower than Notre Dame, given their two-loss status. A win against Georgia might change that dynamic somewhat.
Meanwhile, Georgia might move up to fourth place, courtesy of its victory over Texas. Ole Miss also secured a conference win against Florida, positioning them to rise in the rankings as well. Though Oklahoma might suffer a close loss, their road victory over Tennessee puts them ahead of Alabama among teams with two losses.
The Longhorns suffered their third defeat this season against the Bulldogs, effectively ending their playoff ambitions. Now, they need wins to keep their playoff hopes alive, including a pivotal match against Texas A&M right after Thanksgiving. While that might not suffice, winning twice more this season could elevate their chances of making the bracket to 45%, up from their current 20% probability.
The ACC looks like it will be a one-bid conference for now. Miami Tech and Georgia Tech both won last week, alongside a victory for Virginia. However, it’s worth pondering how the committee views the Yellow Jackets after they needed to score 19 points in the fourth quarter to edge Boston College, a team with just one win.
Shifting gears to the Group of Five, last week, South Florida held the final spot in the bracket as the No. 12 seed, while simultaneously being ranked No. 24 in the committee’s top 25. However, their recent loss to Navy might push them out of contention for now, potentially allowing another team, like Tulane, to emerge. The 8-2 Green Wave debuted at No. 24 in the AP Top 25, thanks to victories over Duke and Northwestern. Did Navy’s win over South Florida impress the committee enough? North Texas could also be in the conversation; they’re 9-1 and have beaten Navy, but their blowout loss to South Florida is a concern.
If the committee wants to avoid a chaotic situation similar to that in the AAC for now, they might look towards James Madison. The Dukes improved to 9-1 after defeating App State, but it’s uncertain if their strength of schedule perceived by the committee will allow them in.
With so many questions lingering, it seems we’ll start finding answers later tonight. The latest rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will be revealed at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN.
In the meantime, let’s glance back at last week’s rankings.
What was last week’s CFP ranking?
1. Ohio
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Texas Tech University
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame Cathedral
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. BYU
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt
15. Miami
16. Georgia Tech
17. University of Southern California
18. Michigan
19. Virginia
20. Louisville
21. Iowa
22. Pittsburgh
23. Tennessee
24. South Florida
25. Cincinnati
What was the CFP bracket last week?
Here are the 12 teams that would hypothetically be in the College Football Playoff, based on last week’s committee rankings:
1. Ohio
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Texas Tech University
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame Cathedral
10. Texas
11. Miami
12. South Florida
What was the bracket in last week’s hypothesis?
This reflects the rankings from the committee last week:
