Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) appears to be holding on to his position, bolstered by polling data that suggests he may continue to outpace Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
Other surveys indicate Cornyn benefits from a similar advantage, which is noteworthy.
The most recent poll, commissioned by former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) to support Cornyn, a long-time ally, was conducted by the Senate Leadership Fund.
This poses a challenge for Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term.
According to reports from Punchbowl News, Cornyn trails Paxton with a margin of 56% to 40% in head-to-head matchups. The report elaborates:
In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), Cornyn finds himself down by ten. Paxton has reduced his support to 44%, while Cornyn sits at 34%, and Hunt garners 19%.
The survey, conducted by the Tarance Group from April 27th to May 1st, also gauged general election matchups against former Democrat Colin Allred (D-Texas), wherein Cornyn led by six points, Hunt gained four, and Paxton dropped by one.
Allred, a Democratic contender for 2024, has been viewed as a significant challenger to Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). The Democrats have heavily invested in what has turned into one of the costliest Senate races on record.
The polling demonstrates a competitive atmosphere between Cruz and Allred throughout the race; however, Cruz ultimately prevailed by nearly ten points.
A spokesperson for Cornyn’s campaign took aim at Paxton following the announcement of his campaign against the incumbent, stating, “Ken is a man of faith, but uses deceptive means to meet his girlfriend and mislead his family.”
Despite those accusations, Paxton, a loyal supporter of former President Donald Trump, has proven resilient against various controversies and challenges in the past. Notably, he has weathered previous legal issues and attempts to remove him from office.
Each controversy seems to have only strengthened Paxton’s standing. Cornyn and his supporters may find themselves limited in their strategies, as basic attacks may not sway opinion.
Cornyn’s reputation within the state has taken a hit during the Biden administration.
The senator was instrumental in the passing of a gun control measure in 2022 and played a significant behind-the-scenes role in negotiating a Senate immigration bill in 2023, although he ultimately opposed the bill when McConnell indicated it would not advance.
Despite consistently low polling numbers and the ineffectiveness of past attacks on Paxton, Cornyn and his team seem to maintain a sense of confidence—though that perspective may stretch credibility.
“The numbers don’t lie—John Cornyn is in a much stronger position than Ken Paxton,” a spokesperson from the SLF stated to Punchbowl.
The release of unfavorable poll data from his allies, combined with standard defenses from the SLF, signals that Cornyn’s team may need to consider reallocating resources to other competitive races instead of focusing on this one.
The gap in support for Paxton may be even larger than reflected in the polls. As noted by Punchbowl:
Some analysts suggested that an increase in approval ratings for Trump within the sampled group hints at a more moderate electorate. Trump had a 14-point lead last November.
Cornyn, an ally of McConnell, first won his Senate seat back in 2002—before the release of the second Harry Potter film—when Nelly’s “Hot in Herre” was climbing the charts.
He has served in the Senate for 14 years prior to Trump’s election, highlighting a political landscape that has shifted significantly against Cornyn’s moderate brand during the Trump presidency.
If a vote occurs, Cornyn will need to stay attuned to the political evolution occurring around him.
