A recent poll indicates that the rise of socialist Zoran Mamdani is somewhat balanced by a Democratic mayoral primary contest.
In the latest ranked-choice voting, Cuomo secured 55% against Mamdani’s 45% in the seventh round.
This marks a significant decline from a previous poll in May, where Cuomo was ahead with 60% compared to Mamdani’s 40% after other candidates were eliminated.
The survey findings come just days before early voting intensified, with the primary day set for June 24th.
A notable shift in the poll showed Mamdani increasing his support among Latino voters, who went from 20% last month to 41% now.
In contrast, Cuomo’s backing from Latino voters dipped from 41% to 36% in the same survey.
“That was definitely unexpected,” commented Lee Millingoff, the Marist voting director.
Milingoff suggested that support from Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might have bolstered Mamdani, especially among younger Latino voters.
Also, the ranked choice results revealed that 11% of voters remain undecided, down from 17% in May.
In the initial round of ranked-choice voting, none of the other candidates surpassed 10% among Democratic voters. Council Chair Adrienne Adams received 7%, while former City Director Scott Stringer got 4%. Brooklyn Senator Zelner Miley and former Bronx Representative Michael Blake each garnered 2%.
A survey of 1,350 Democratic voters was conducted from June 9th to 12th, prior to the second mayoral debate.
“This really feels like a two-person race,” said Millingoff.
Initially, Cuomo started with 43% support among Democrats, while Mamdani had 31%. When undecided voters were included, Cuomo’s support was 38% compared to Mamdani’s 27%, which was a notable increase from 18% last month.
Cuomo maintained strong support from Black and older voters.
Nearly half (48%) of Black voters backed Cuomo, compared to just 11% for Mamdani and 12% for Adrienne Adams.
However, 21% of African American voters remain undecided, which is the highest percentage among racial groups.
Mamdani captured 52% of voters younger than 45, while only 18% of that age group supported Cuomo.
On the flip side, Cuomo dominated among voters over 45, winning 47% to Mamdani’s 17%.
In later rounds, Mamdani’s support surged to 62% with the under-45 demographic, while older voters leaned 63% towards Cuomo.
Marist forecasts that about 70% of turnout will come from voters over 45, which is likely advantageous for Cuomo.
Still, Mamdani could increase his chances if he can mobilize more younger voters to the polls than anticipated.
Among White voters, support appears closely matched, with Cuomo at 32% and Mamdani at 31%. Additionally, Cuomo might gain late backing from the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community.
The upcoming mayoral primary in 2021 hinted that the contest between Cuomo and Mamdani could be tighter than current polls suggest.
A similar Marist survey conducted just before the last primary showed that the outcome between Cuomo and Mamdani could mirror past tight races, like Adams winning by a narrow margin against Garcia.
“Ranked choice voting certainly introduces a layer of unpredictability to the race,” Millingoff concluded.
