According to an Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll, if the presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would have an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in four key battleground states, which would lead to an Electoral College victory.
A poll released Thursday showed Trump ahead of Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Harris with slight leads in Michigan and North Carolina. teeth It was a close race in Nevada.
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Arizona:
- Trump: 49 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Others: 2
- Undecided: 1
Georgia:
- Trump: 50 percent
- Harris: 47 percent
- Other: 2%
- Undecided: 2%
Pennsylvania:
- Trump: 48 percent
- Harris: 47 percent
- Other: 1 percent
- Undecided: 4%
Wisconsin:
- Trump: 49 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Other: 1 percent
- Undecided: 2%
Michigan:
- Harris: 49 percent
- TRUMP: 47 percent
- Other: 1 percent
- Undecided: 3%
North Carolina:
- Harris: 49 percent
- Trump: 48 percent
- Other: 1 percent
- Undecided: 2%
Nevada
- Trump: 48 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Other: 2%
- Undecided: 2%
Applying the poll results to the electoral map would give Trump enough electoral votes to win the White House. Before taking into account seven battleground states, Trump would start with 219 electoral votes based on the projected results in traditionally Republican states.
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Arizona has 11 electoral votes, Georgia 16, Pennsylvania 19, and Wisconsin 10. If Trump's lead in these polls were realized on Election Day, he would have 275 electoral votes, meaning Harris would lose. And if the election were held today and Nevada went to Trump, he would have 281 electoral votes, which could widen his theoretical margin of victory even further. Before rounding, Trump has a 0.7 percentage point lead in Nevada, with 48.4% and Harris with 47.7%, according to the Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.
Further worrying for Democrats, polls show Trump would win the White House except for North Carolina, which he has won in the past two elections. beat President Joe Biden received a 1.3 percentage point approval rating in the Tar Heel State in 2020. Lost In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton lost twice, but only received 3.6 percent of the vote.
The post-debate polls were conducted among 868 to 1,000 voters in those states between Sept. 15, the day Trump was the target of his second assassination attempt, and Sept. 18. The confidence intervals range from ±3% to ±3.3%, meaning all results fall within the confidence interval.
