Democrats are ahead in Senate contests across seven battleground states, including Texas and Kansas, where Republicans have held a long advantage, according to a poll released Sunday ahead of the midterm elections.
The New York Times/Siena survey found Democratic candidates leading in five states with Republican senators: Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Iowa’s race is nearly even. In Michigan, the only state surveyed with a Democratic-held seat, the Democratic candidate is ahead by double digits.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the results point to a possible Democratic takeover of the Senate. But with several contests still within the poll’s margin of error, he said either party could end up with a majority.
The numbers stand out in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and Kansas, where Democrats last won a Senate race in 1932. In Texas, state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 50% to 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, 49% to 44%.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 49% to 44%. Democrat Troy Jackson has a 51% to 45% advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine.
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, 48% to 46%. Iowa is tighter still: Democrat Josh Turek is ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, 48% to 47%.
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has the largest lead in the group, topping Republican Mike Rogers, 53% to 42%.
The poll also points to wider unease with President Donald Trump and Republicans’ handling of the economy. Across the seven states, 38% of likely voters approve of Trump’s performance, even though he won five of them by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trust more to address the cost of living. Democratic Senate candidates lead on the issue in all seven states, and they also lead among independent voters in each state surveyed.
Compared with September’s Times/Siena surveys, Democratic candidates improved their position in six states. Alaska was the exception.
There are some favorable signs for Republicans, though. Voters who decided within the past month supported Republican candidates by nine points, and several races remain close enough to fall within the margin of error. The Times also noted that polls underestimated Collins in 2020: she was behind in every survey before winning re-election comfortably.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to defend their current seats and flip at least four Republican-held ones.
The likely-voter surveys were conducted from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1. State-level margins of sampling error ranged from 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 points in Alaska.
