NBC data analyst Steve Kornacki reviewed the latest polling ahead of the closely watched midterm elections. He noted some challenges for Republicans and President Donald Trump, but said Democrats also face a significant hurdle.
An NBC News poll conducted the previous week asked respondents how they viewed the two major parties. Republicans remained unpopular, Kornacki said, though their numbers were similar to those recorded during Donald Trump’s first midterm election in 2018.
Democrats, by comparison, had a 29% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating. Their standing was notably weaker than it had been in 2018.
Kornacki said that could complicate Democrats’ efforts to win over voters unhappy with Trump, the economy, or inflation. Even if the political climate appears favorable to the party, he wondered whether voters would actually support Democrats given the party’s own poor ratings.
Polling expert Frank Luntz raised another issue: some voters may distrust polls. He said he misread the 2016 election, in part because Trump supporters declined to take part in exit polls, believing the polling was biased against them.
Luntz said Republicans were again being urged not to trust polls, adding that the accuracy of that advice would soon become clear.
Kornacki also pointed to difficult numbers for Trump. The poll put his approval rating at 40%, with 60% disapproving of his performance.
Asked which party should control Congress, 52% said Democrats and 45% chose Republicans. Meanwhile, 51% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with their financial situation, compared with 49% who said they were satisfied.
