Poll guru Nate Silver said on a podcast Wednesday that he plans to support Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in November.
“I'm trying to be nonpartisan with my audience, and as you know, I'm going to be voting for Harris,” Silver said on the “Risky Business” podcast, which he co-hosts with Maria Konnikova.
Silver released an election model this week that predicted former President Trump had a high chance of winning the Electoral College. Election Predictions He also updated his predictions after the debate.
“She's currently at 49 percent of the vote in the polls,” Silver said on the podcast, “and she has to get to 51 percent to win, because 51 percent is likely going to put her at a disadvantage in the Electoral College.”
Polling expert Nate Silver, who runs the Silver Bulletin, revealed who he's backing for president on Thursday. (Left: Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images, Right: Photo by Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Nate Silver reveals battleground states that could be problematic for Kamala Harris
His model, updated Wednesday, gives Harris just a 38% chance of winning the Electoral College, and Silver's national polling average gives her a 2-point lead over Trump. But Newsweek reports: He raced After Tuesday's ABC News presidential debate, the odds were tied 50-50.
“This projection does not reflect the impact of the debate, as there are no post-debate polls yet that meet Silver Bulletin's criteria. However, several pre-debate polls were released today, in which Kamala Harris performed well in Wisconsin but performed mediocre in national polls. These have essentially been written off, resulting in little overall change in the numbers,” Silver's Wednesday update said.
Silver also suggested during the podcast that Harris should do more interviews and questioned why she had avoided them until now. Harris gave her first CNN interview since emerging as the Democratic candidate in late August and gave two radio interviews last week.
“She needs to get 2% of the electorate somewhere, which seems easy, but only about 6% are undecided or voting third party,” he said. “She needs to do some weird podcasts, not mainstream media hit shows, and really reach out to marginal constituencies.”
US President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris attend a ceremony commemorating the 23rd anniversary of the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center attack at the 9/11 Memorial Museum in Manhattan, New York City, USA, on September 11, 2024. (Reuters/Mike Seeger)
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In a Substack post In an article published after the debate, Silver noted that although Harris won the debate, “the line of questioning was fairly friendly towards Ms. Harris.”
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“Harris got the debate she wanted, and if she can't make any gains in the polls it may be that people aren't buying what she's selling,” he added.
