After the Nov. 5 election, many political pollsters were blindsided by President-elect Donald Trump's poll results, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Most pollsters had repeatedly predicted that the election would be a close one, and had not expected such a landslide victory. According to To WSJ. This presidential election marks the third time in a row that pollsters have underestimated voters' support for Trump.
“What other politician has people raising flags and parading in boats? Josh Clinton, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, is unique in mobilizing people around his vision. , which may appeal to people who don't trust the system and vote but don't take part in the polls,'' WSJ reported.
The president-elect won re-election against Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday. reach According to several election forecasters, the number of electors was 270, with several key battleground states secured. Harris formally conceded to Trump in a speech to supporters on Wednesday. (Related: Officials scramble to protect Biden's foreign policy legacy from the incoming Trump administration)
Lititz, Pennsylvania – November 3: Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at Lancaster Airport on November 3, 2024 in Lititz, Pennsylvania. With just two days left until the election, Trump is campaigning for re-election in battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia on Sunday. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
In the 2016 election, pollsters underestimated Trump's support among less educated and working-class whites in key states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. According to According to a November 2016 analysis published by the Pew Research Center. In the 2020 election, many polls overestimated President Joe Biden's lead, and President Trump's strength was “not fully accounted for” in many pre-election polls. According to To Pew.
Michael Bailey, a professor at Georgetown University, said pollsters did not anticipate support for Trump among Latino voters or young people. According to Go to BBC News. According to the BBC, President Trump's popularity was also underestimated in lesser-visited areas of the United States.
According to a BBC report, Bailey said: “At first glance, the polls were a little hot for Harris in the battleground states, which weren't actually that bad, but when you dig deeper, everything seems a little more impressive.” “It's lacking,” he said.
In Iowa, Harris was incorrectly predicted to lead Trump by 3 points, 47% to Trump's 44%. According to Responses to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Nov. 2. Trump ultimately won Iowa's six electoral votes on Tuesday. According to To the Associated Press.
“These models are so heavily premised on being repeated that any major changes are catastrophic,” Bailey told the BBC.
“I didn't think it was going to be perfect,” Clinton told the Journal about this year's polls. “But it's very difficult given the crude means we have.”
Some election experts had previously questioned whether support for Mr. Trump would be accurately measured by pollsters before the election. Polls released in the run-up to election night showed that Mr. Trump was favored by likely voters on issues such as immigration and the economy.
This year, many pollsters feared they would overestimate Trump's support following the 2020 presidential election results, but ended up underestimating it. According to In the Times of London.
“They obviously didn't work. And I have to say, I didn't have confidence that they would work,” he said, trying to weight polls to better capture Trump's base. Douglas Rivers, YouGov's chief scientist, spoke about the effort, The Times reported.
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
All content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent, nonpartisan news distribution service, is available free of charge to legitimate news publishers with large audiences. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and DCNF affiliation. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
