Election betting platform Polymarket plans to return to the US following its success in accurately predicting President-elect Donald Trump's landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House.
Polymarket is currently available only to customers outside the United States. Among them is the infamous French “whale” trader who bet millions of dollars on Trump's victory and made about $48 million in profits after the election results were announced.
In 2022, the platform suspended trading in the U.S. and paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for failing to register with the commission.
“I want to give a huge tribute to those who fought to legalize political prediction markets in America,” Polymarket founder and CEO Shane Coplan said Thursday on CNBC's “Squawk Box.” he said. “We are now in a position to be aggressive with our expansion.”
Koplan has expressed gratitude to rival gambling platform Karshi after a landmark ruling in October lifted the moratorium on Karshi's operations and allowed it to trade election contracts.
“A demonstration of irreparable harm is a necessary condition for a suspended sentence,” Judge Patricia Millett said in her ruling.
Polymarket election betting has been a huge hit this year, with gamblers betting more than $3.7 billion.
On the morning before Election Day, the betting site announced that Mr. Trump had a 58.6% chance of winning the presidency, and Ms. Harris had a 41.4% chance, according to the Polymarket site. The site's bet was a more accurate prediction than the latest poll.
“It looked like the deal was done in Polymarket, but if you were just watching TV you would think it was a close race,” Coplan said. The 26-year-old brain behind Polymarket created the betting site when he was just 21 years old.
Those who believe betting sites are the next major polling tool argue that the market reacts quickly to changes in sentiment and maintains voter interest.
Seeing Kalsi's huge success with election gambling, Interactive Brokers and Robinhood quickly launched their own versions ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
“My view is that this is probably going to be a bigger market than the stock market in about 15 years,” Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, said Wednesday on CNBC's “Closing Bell.” he said. “This is fundamentally a global market. No matter where you live in the world, the question is just as relevant.”
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said the election betting platform is more accurate than traditional polls because participants have a real stake in the outcome.
“The great thing about these markets is that people are betting money,” Tenev previously told CNBC. “You can trust that they care more about the results, and in some ways the results should be much more reliable than a simple poll.”
The same goes for Trump supporter Elon Musk's praise for polymarkets.
The billionaire founder of Tesla and SpaceX said in a post on X that polymarkets are “more accurate than polls because there's real money at stake.”
On election night, before the results were announced, Musk wrote: “The prophecy has come true!”
