- The GBP/USD is steady at 1.3437 as the dollar makes a slight recovery.
- The Bank of England (BoE) decreased the rate by 25 basis points in a close 5-4 vote, indicating a cautious stance. Market expectations suggest there’s an 87% chance of no changes in September.
- There are rumors that the Trump administration favors Gov. Christopher Waller to succeed Powell in 2026.
- Musalem from the St. Louis Fed mentioned that inflation is still not meeting targets, while the current job market poses risks.
As traders express confidence that the recent interest rate cut from the BOE might be the final one for the year, GBP/USD remains stable during the North American trading hours, showing minimal changes at 1.3437. The dollar’s slight recovery is playing a role here.
The pound is expected to maintain gains as expectations for BOE easing win out in September amidst mixed signals from central banks.
In recent financial news, Dr. Stephen Mirren has been appointed to replace Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, who resigned. Speculation is growing around Gov. Christopher Waller as a potential successor to Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026; it appears the Trump administration is backing him.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair hasn’t made much headway following the BoE’s unexpected rate cut. Current odds indicate that the BoE will likely maintain its policy stance during the September 18 meeting, with an 87% probability of keeping rates unchanged at 4%.
Huw Pill, the chief economist at the BoE and one of the dissenting voices during the last meeting, indicated that a decision on lower rates has been reached. He pointed out that developing trends suggest ongoing inflation risks are rising over the next couple of years.
On the U.S. side, FOMC voter and St. Louis Industry President Alberto Mu Salem reported that economic activity seems stable, with companies not relying on layoffs to manage costs. He noted that there are target misses regarding inflation, highlighting issues more related to job security than employment mandates.
Looking ahead to next week’s calendar
The UK schedule includes retail sales, employment data, and GDP figures, while in the U.S., traders will be keeping an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.
GBP/USD price forecast: Technical insights
The GBP/USD appears neutral to slightly bullish after gaining for five consecutive days. However, the pair seems constrained by the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3500. If it breaks above that, the next resistance levels could be around 1.3550 and 1.3600. Conversely, a drop below 1.3450 might indicate a pullback, with nearby selling interest at the 20-day SMA around 1.3400 and 1.3389.
The latest data reveals the British pound’s performance against major currencies this week, showing strength particularly against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | -1.18% | 0.30% | -0.19% | -0.72% | -0.72% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | -0.55% | 0.91% | 0.40% | -0.28% | -0.16% | 0.80% | |
| GBP | 1.18% | 0.55% | 1.49% | 0.95% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 1.35% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | -0.91% | -1.49% | -0.49% | -1.17% | -1.03% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.40% | -0.95% | 0.49% | -0.70% | -0.54% | 0.40% | |
| AUD | 0.72% | 0.28% | -0.27% | 1.17% | 0.70% | 0.13% | 1.10% | |
| NZD | 0.72% | 0.16% | -0.39% | 1.03% | 0.54% | -0.13% | 0.94% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.80% | -1.35% | -0.08% | -0.40% | -1.10% | -0.94% |
The heatmap illustrates how the British pound has changed against major currencies. The base currency can be selected from the left column, with the estimated currency chosen from the top row. For instance, selecting the British pound from the left and then moving across to the US dollar will show the rate of change based on GBP/USD.
