The Post’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the National League Central.
1. Cincinnati Reds
O/U wins: 82.5
Key players: Frankie Montas. If Montas resembles the pitcher he was in Oakland, the Reds could have a shot at a division title. If he looks like the pitcher from his time in the Bronx, they’re going to be in trouble. The right-hander started just eight games in one and a half seasons with the Yankees, his tenure marred by injuries, but his potential still led to a $16 million contract. Could he be the ace and leader of a young, talented rotation?
Players who need to step up: Ellie Delacruz. Could perhaps the most exhilarating player in baseball become the best? The 22-year-old dazzles with his power both with the bat and pitching from shortstop. It seemed like every game of his rookie year brought a new highlight, but he also whiffed a lot, racking up 144 strikeouts in 98 games. After a rocky debut with a .710 OPS, can he begin to reach his superstar potential?
Name you’ll know: Rhett Lowder. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft has yet to make his official pro debut, but is still expected to come through the system quickly. Lowder, a 22-year-old hard-throwing right-hander from Wake Forest, has an excellent changeup and could quickly join the Reds’ youth movement in the majors.
Biggest question mark: There’s plenty of talent, but are you ready to take the next step? If Dela Cruz, Spencer Steere, and Hunter Green perform well at the All-Star level, the Reds will be well on their way to the postseason. However, Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension was an early setback and there are concerns about Matt McClain’s shoulder.
How it falls: If he has the ability, the Reds will definitely be available in September. If they pitch well enough, it’s not difficult to imagine them winning the district for the first time since 2012.
2. Chicago Cubs
O/U wins: 84.5
Key players: Shota Imanaga. The Cubs’ batting lineup and rotation are excellent, if not overwhelming, and their biggest X-factor may be the 30-year-old left-hander brought over from Japan. Imanaga, who will essentially replace Marcus Stroman and join Justin Steele at the top of the rotation, pitched to a 2.66 ERA with the Yokohama BayStars last season, and if he proves to be an ace, If he does, it could change the face of the Cubs in 2024.
Players who need to step up: What about managers who need a step up? Craig Counsell hit free agency, traded with several teams, and watched the Cubs waive David Ross to make room in the dugout. Counsell is a solid man who has led the Brewers for many years and is known for getting the most out of his talent. From Cody Bellinger to Seiya Suzuki to Kyle Hendricks to Adbert Alzolay, Counsel should have plenty of talent.
Name you’ll know: michael bush. The former Dodgers top prospect was blocked in Los Angeles and traded to the Cubs this offseason. An infielder with experience at first, second and third base should have an easy time finding the majors in Chicago. If his bat makes as much noise as it did last season (1.049 OPS in 98 Triple-A games), his time will come soon.
Biggest question mark: The Cubs should be able to hit, but how strong is their rotation? There are questions all over the starting staff, from the workload issues of Steele (who hit a career-high in innings) to Imanaga, the improving Hendricks, and the already strong Jameson Taillon.
How it falls: The Cubs, who missed the postseason by one game last year, probably improved this offseason, but like any team in a division that should be competitive. The race should be close, and the Cubs are counting on Counsell to be a difference-maker.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
O/U wins: 85.5
Key players: Paul Goldschmidt. Is he the 2022 National League MVP, or is he a good but perhaps fading first baseman who played like he did last season? He is a seven-time All-Star, but his OPS dropped by 171 points last season, an alarming trend for the 36-year-old slugger. The Cardinals probably can’t afford him just being a solid hitter.
Players who need to step up: Miles Mikolas. You could pick any Cardinals starter in his 30s to slot in here, but here’s a talented arm who posted the fifth-worst qualifying ERA (4.78) in baseball last season. Mikolas is 35 years old and was recently named an All-Star in 2022, but there are questions about whether his best days are over.
Name you’ll know: Meishin Win. After a slow start (.172 average) in his first 37 games as a major leaguer last season, the 22-year-old will likely become the Cardinals’ regular shortstop. The No. 1 prospect in the organization, Wynn dominated pitching in the minor leagues (including 18 home runs in 105 Triple-A games last season) and is known for his cannonball arm, which can reach speeds of 160 mph.
Biggest question mark: Age affects the entire roster, but especially in the rotation. The youngest starter if everyone is healthy will be 32-year-old Steven Matz. Sonny Gray, 34, is already set to miss the opening game due to a hamstring problem. Mykolas (35), Kyle Gibson (36) and Lance Lynn (36) round out the group. In an era where the game is younger, faster and more athletic, can the old players make a comeback?
How it falls: The Cardinals, who finished in last place for the first time since 1990, added a lot of pitching and are hoping for a counterattack primarily from their offense. This division is weak enough for the Cardinals to hang around, but it would be amazing if the fragile rotation can stay healthy and perform.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
O/U wins: 76.5
Key players: Rhys Hoskins. The Brewers were middling offensively last season, helped by a great year from William Contreras and a bounce-back performance from Christian Yelich. The Brewers’ biggest hope for a breakthrough this season is Hoskins, a strong hitter who hit 30 home runs in 2022, but missed all of last season with a torn ACL.
Players who need to step up: DL hall. It may be unfair to expect too much from a young prospect who is learning the ropes in the second team, but the Brewers lost Corbin Burnes (trade), Brandon Woodruff (injury), and Adrian Hauser (trade). The rotation needs to lead to a turnaround. . Hall, the crown jewel of the Barnes trade, is expected to start the season in the rotation.
Name you’ll know: Jackson Chorio. He’s the organization’s top prospect and one of the best prospects in the game, still only 20 years old, but he’s already signed an $82 million contract to stay in Milwaukee for at least eight years. Originally a shortstop and now an outfielder, Cholio had 22 home runs and 44 stolen bases in the 2023 minor league season, which ended in Triple-A. Chorio will break up camp with the team and help immediately.
Biggest question mark: Will the machine keep humming without the best parts? Milwaukee has made the playoffs in five of six seasons despite often having low payrolls and low expectations. But a front office that is constantly trying to play for the time being and beyond (which often means subtracting from the current roster to plan future rosters) is the biggest contender for the Brewers. His hopes for rotation were dashed. Can pitchers like Freddy Peralta, Colin Ray, Jacob Junis, Hall, and Wade Miley (when healthy) recover from their slump?
How it falls: Whether they like to admit it or not, the Brewers have taken a step back. However, Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelich, and Bryce Turan can offer great hope for the future.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U wins: 75.5
Key players: O’Neal Crews. Cruz’s 2023 season, as exciting as any in baseball, ended almost as soon as it began. The shortstop missed the year after just nine games due to a fracture of his left fibula. The 25-year-old, who has generational tools, enjoyed an incredible spring training. Even if the Pirates aren’t great, Cruz’s leap forward should make for a fun season.
Players who need to step up: Henry Davis. The 2021 No. 1 draft pick wasn’t the instant star the Pirates were hoping for. Davis was considered a bat-first catcher, but his defense raised many questions, and he made his major league debut last year as a near-exclusive right fielder. In his first match against a major league pitcher, he posted an OPS of .653 in 62 at-bats. game. Davis is trying to prove he can both catch and hit at the major league level.
Name you’ll know: Paul Skeens. Last year’s No. 1 draft pick made it to Double-A last season, despite pitching for LSU just a few months earlier. The 21-year-old power thrower did not leave camp with the Pirates, but it shouldn’t be long before one of the best starting prospects in baseball gets his chance.
Biggest question mark: Can the Pirates be competitive enough to avoid further declines at the trade deadline? Free agent acquisitions like Aroldis Chapman, Domingo German, and Michael A. Taylor could mean the Pirates could flip in July unless it’s a young core featuring Cruz, Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Bryan Reynolds. It certainly looks like the desired buy-low acquisition and Mitch Keller keeps Pittsburgh in contention.
How it falls: The Pirates probably don’t have the pitching power to stay in this division, and they clearly aren’t going to spend the money to fill that pitching hole, but a successful season means a lot from a base of promising stars. It would be a season marked by a successful debut.
