Sunday
Jaguars +1.5 Bills
The Bills are facing a challenging match, and Josh Allen might need to step up in ways we haven’t seen yet if they want to move past the wild-card round. It’s tough because Jacksonville looks like the stronger team right now, and they’re certainly playing better overall. They rank 6th in FTN’s DVOA and boast a solid defense. Their performance against the run is particularly impressive, which is a crucial area for Buffalo, especially with James Cook leading the rush.
Buffalo’s defense, under Anthony Campanile, has had moments of brilliance, but Liam Cohen managed to outsmart them in a previous matchup. It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
49ers +5.5 vs. Eagles
I’m not exactly rooting for the Eagles, but here I am, kind of supporting them, especially given their status as favorites, even though San Francisco has had its share of injury concerns. The Eagles’ offense started off strong, ranking 9th in the first half of the season, but then dropped to 22nd in the latter half. DVOA still sees promise in the 49ers, placing them at 10th overall, while the Eagles have slipped to 15th. There’s some hope with Trent Williams returning to practice; I think he might actually play, which is super crucial for the team.
The numbers are telling. Since 2020, the 49ers have a rough record without Williams, and a strong one with him. The Eagles, while they’ve had some impressive moments against teams like the Raiders or Commanders, haven’t exactly overwhelmed anyone lately. I think San Francisco will keep this game tight.
Patriots -3.5 vs. Chargers
Omarion Hampton has been struggling but is expected to play. Meanwhile, the Patriots, led by Drake Maye, are finding their groove as the season progresses. Breaking down the DVOA stats, the Chargers are at 17th, which doesn’t bode well for them; the Patriots are doing better at 9th. Over their last few games, New England has averaged 7.1 YPP, although part of that was helped by a weak Jets game, while the Chargers could only manage 5 YPP in the same stretch.
It’s not looking good for the Chargers; the Patriots should have a solid game.
Monday
Steelers +3 vs. Texans
Aaron Rodgers is still the villain in this narrative, but he’s getting DK Metcalf back on Monday night. The Steelers are playing their best football this year, and my model shows them just a couple of points behind the Texans at home.
Houston’s defense is definitely showing some vulnerabilities, allowing 5.5 YPP in the last three games compared to 4.8 YPP for the season overall. Their offense has also struggled throughout the season, making this a potential opportunity for Pittsburgh, whose defense has been solid and whose offense seems to be gaining momentum.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 116-123-5
