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Predictions for NFL contracts of 4 EDGE rushers seeking improved agreements

Predictions for NFL contracts of 4 EDGE rushers seeking improved agreements

NFL Contract Resets and Edge Rush Market Dynamics

In the NFL, the contract landscape shifts every year. It’s how the league operates. Players, naturally, want fair compensation for their on-field performances, and often their play justifies those expectations. Some positions, though, seem to capture more attention than others when it comes to big contracts.

For instance, how many times have we seen the wide receiver market recalibrated after a standout player’s tenure? Take Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, who set the bar last offseason, followed by Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase, who pushed those limits even further, especially after their time together at LSU. Just two examples of a trend we see unfolding.

This year is particularly notable for edge rushers. It began with the Las Vegas Raiders’ Max Crosby establishing a new benchmark:

Shortly after, despite trading demands earlier in the offseason, Cleveland Browns defensive star Miles Garrett signed a record-breaking contract that positioned him as the league’s highest-paid defensive player, surpassing Crosby’s recent record.

As we transition from mandatory minicamps to training camps, there are three standout edge rushers still waiting for compensation, along with a rookie who hasn’t signed due to contentious contract language.

Bengals’ Edge Rusher Trey Hendrickson

Cincinnati Bengals appear to be complicating their situation unnecessarily. This offseason is no different, which brings to mind the “Dollar General” nickname.

Hendrickson shone as one of their few defensive bright spots, despite the team ranking low in defensive success and EPA. Yet, he still lacks a new contract. He skipped mandatory minicamps after also missing the previous OTA. Recently, discussions resumed, but it remains unclear whether they’ll draw towards a signed agreement.

The crux of the issue seems less about Hendrickson himself and more about how the Bengals have approached previous offseasons. Rather than prioritizing him after the Chase deal, they opted to invest in both Chase and Tee Higgins.

Hendrickson isn’t alone in feeling undervalued.

Prediction: This impasse may last into training camp, causing Hendrickson to miss the initial days. Ultimately, I suspect he will sign for about $38 million annually—just above Crosby’s deal but a touch below Garrett’s.

Bengals’ Rookie Edge Rusher Shemar Stewart

Stewart’s predicament adds complexity that no rookie deserves to face, particularly one selected in the first round. The real sticking point isn’t the financials; it’s the contract wording.

The Bengals seem intent on inserting “default clauses” that would void guaranteed money if an injury or off-field incident occurs. This approach is new for them and stands in contrast to how they handled contracts with their last two rookies.

This isn’t about cash; it’s about principles. It raises questions: why start placing such language now when it wasn’t applied before? It doesn’t reflect well on Cincinnati.

Prediction: Stewart might request a trade, but I think the Bengals will deny him. They could have a stalemate, leaving him absent for portions of training camp, yet ultimately, he will sign and attend camp, albeit under duress.

Steelers’ Edge/OLB T.J. Watt

Staying in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers face challenges in compensating one of their key defensive players. Interestingly, whether Watt deserves top-tier payment is up for debate.

Watt’s performance hasn’t been as consistent lately, and with plenty of eyes on him, discussions about him being the top edge rusher on his team this season are swirling. I doubt he’ll sit out training camp, but his desired contract might hinge on what terms other veterans on this list secure.

Prediction: I expect Watt to finalize a deal before training camp starts, likely close to $30 million annually.

Cowboys’ Edge Rusher Micah Parsons

If we’re speculating about which veteran might reset the edge rush market again, it’s likely Parsons.

Considering Parsons’ talent and dominance, it’s puzzling why a deal hasn’t materialized yet. Given Garrett’s recent deal, it’s reasonable to think Parsons’ contract will mirror or exceed that amount.

As discussions indicate, the Cowboys may be sacrificing leverage by waiting, but this isn’t a new tactic for the franchise.

Parsons is among the league’s elite edge rushers and is the cornerstone of the Dallas defense. It’s not a question of if he will be paid, but rather when he will be, and how much above Garrett’s contract he will secure.

Prediction: I anticipate Parsons will report to camp, clear the air, and ultimately reset the market with a deal potentially averaging around $41.5 to $45 million. This may happen shortly before the regular season kicks off.

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