A popular political conversation at this time of year during the presidential election is speculating not only which party will win the White House, but also how the success of its presidential candidate will or will not affect lower-level races in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate — the so-called “coattail effect.”
words “Coattails” have been around since at least 1600Defined as the long flap at the back of a gentleman's coat. Today, this style of clothing is primarily associated with formal wear (e.g. white tie and tailcoat).
The political use of the term is relatively recent. Speech of 1848In 1960, first-term Congressman Abraham Lincoln (Whig, Illinois) countered Democratic criticism that the Whigs were hiding behind the “military backing” of presidential candidate General Zachary Taylor by arguing that the Democrats were guilty of hypocrisy after having hidden behind Andrew Jackson for 20 years.
The term “coattails” only fully emerged in popular political vernacular in the mid-20th century, primarily in connection with landslide victories in presidential elections won by congressional candidates from the president's party who likely would not have won on their own. Think of Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Ronald Reagan in 1980. In each case, their landslide margins of victory strengthened each party's voting strength in Congress.
Lyndon Johnson's “overwhelming victory” enabled him to enact his ambitious “Great Society” set of progressive social and civil rights legislation, but by March 1968, citing the nation's declining state, plagued by urban riots, anti-Vietnam War protests, and political assassinations, he announced he would not run for reelection. Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey was unable to steer his party as the presidential candidate, and Republican Richard M. Nixon of California narrowly won the election in November. 43.4 percent of the popular vote and 302 electoral votes to 191.
What we witnessed with the collapse of the Johnson Administration in 1968 was a phenomenon known as “negativity” or “reverse coattails.” In 2016, when Donald Trump was losing badly to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in every poll, Senate Republicans were so panicked about losing their majority that they were internally debating how best to distance themselves from Trump.
One veteran political commentator, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said in June 2016 that Senate Republicans were “whistling past their graves…it's ludicrous to deny the boost.” Nate Silver's respected polling organization FiveThirtyEight predicts: Clinton had a 71.4% chance of winning. This compares to Trump's 28.6% chance, with Trump reversing the trend and Politico reporting,The most shocking upsets in American history.”
Clinton won a narrow majority of the popular vote, 48.2 percent to 46.2 percentShe lost the Electoral College election. 227 votes to Trump's 307Her victory wasn't necessarily a negative, as Democrats gained six seats in the House and two in the Senate, but Republicans held on to their 241-194 House majority and 52-46 Senate majority.
Former Vice President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. 306 electoral votes, Trump 232Neither party could claim any negative or positive effects from that race on their lower-ranking candidates. And despite Biden's impressive legislative record during his first two years as president, Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, gaining nine seats. 222 to 213 majority.
Potentially disastrous negative ripple effects loomed for the 2024 Democratic House and Senate elections as President Biden's support dwindled following his terrible performance in the debates with President Trump. Biden withdrew from the race in July and decided to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Since then, opinion polls have turned in Biden's favor, and her party has responded to its newly nominated presidential candidate with renewed energy and enthusiasm. Similarly, the chances of major losses for the party of the lesser candidate have also significantly decreased.
As things stand, Democrats have regained some lost support, with Harris holding a slight lead in national polls of registered voters, but Trump still leads in several key battleground states and on key issues such as the economy, inflation and immigration.
Maybe high-tech pollsters and forecasters will get all the results of these presidential and congressional elections right, but don't bet all your money on their predictions. Instead, take a coin to the corner and flip it. Chances are, your predictions will be just as accurate or even better than those of the so-called experts.
Don Wolfensberger is a veteran of the House of Representatives, having served as staff member for 28 years before becoming Chief of Staff of the House Rules Committee in 1995. His books include Congress and the People: A Test of Deliberative Democracy (2000) and Changing the Culture of Congress: From Fair Play to Power (2018).
