Republicans are growing increasingly worried that the contentious Senate primary in Texas might jeopardize their majority in the upcoming elections.
This week, a Senate Leadership Fund poll led by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) indicated that Attorney General Ken Paxton is 16 points ahead. Yet, in a hypothetical general election matchup, Paxton trails one point behind former House Representative Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is contemplating a candidacy.
Cornyn and his supporters are claiming that if Paxton secures the GOP nomination, it would compel the party to allocate more resources in an effort to both defend and extend their Senate majority.
“The primary concern is that we don’t want to be pouring a ton of money into Texas, especially when we should be winning this seat,” Cornyn remarked to The Hill, referencing Paxton’s recent decline in the polls against Allred.
“If that happens, it would mark the first Democratic win since 1994, which I can’t allow,” the senator added.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has set a target of securing 55 Republican seats in the mid-terms, aiming to focus on Republican-held states like Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Many within the GOP believe that Paxton’s potential nomination could derail this strategy.
“I think that sentiment is prevalent; it detracts from other crucial Senate races that need significant funding and have a solid chance of winning in my state,” one Republican said.
Cornyn’s allies point out that the dynamics of the race could shift, noting that there’s still time for the campaign to address voter concerns.
“They haven’t been on a ballot in six years, so they need to reacquaint themselves with voters,” observed one national Republican operative. “Many voters might not even know who Ken Paxton really is.”
In response, Cornyn’s team has begun targeting Paxton, employing digital ads that accuse him of allocating $7.1 million in grants to a liberal organization.
Paxton, seen as a rising star among far-right conservatives, is also considered a contentious figure in Washington, given his history of legal troubles that include dropped securities fraud charges and various corruption allegations.
Historically, Republicans have faced challenges in retaining their Senate seats in strongly Republican states following contentious primaries. A recent example is the 2017 special election in Alabama, where former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Alabama) narrowly beat Republican Roy Moore amidst a scandal involving multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore.
Furthermore, some Republicans have cited setbacks from other extremely conservative candidates, like Kari Lake, who recently lost to Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) in a more politically moderate state.
Supporters of Paxton counter that the narrative should not pivot to him being a liability in the general election, arguing that resources shouldn’t be diverted from other races.
“The Senate race in Texas is a massive financial undertaking. Who’s in the lead, frankly, doesn’t change that,” a senior adviser to the Paxton campaign commented, referencing Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2012 primary against then-Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst.
“Nobody claimed the same things about Ted Cruz,” this adviser added, noting Cruz’s victory despite financial backing for his opponent from the state’s GOP establishment.
Cornyn has faced several warning signs from the grassroots Republican base over recent years.
In 2022, he helped pass a bipartisan gun control and school safety measure in Congress after the tragic shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. This led to him being booed at the Texas GOP Convention that year, and the Collin County GOP even voted to censure him.
While Cornyn and the Texas GOP have attempted to move forward, party chair Abraham George recently praised Cornyn, yet many Republicans feel it might be too late for him to salvage his reputation.
“The grassroots felt betrayed after he gave the Biden administration a second chance with that amendment, but those sentiments haven’t changed,” a source remarked.
Allred, who collaborated with Cornyn on the bipartisan safety law, has been critical of him, stating, “I know John Cornyn, and I see him as having lost his way in many respects.”
Allred further criticized Paxton, labeling him “uniquely harmful” to Texas due to his perceived ineffectiveness.
One unnamed GOP strategist expressed doubt about Cornyn’s chances in a primary, describing the scenario as a difficult situation for Republicans in Texas and highlighting concerns about Paxton’s ability to attract general voters.
“Ken Paxton might be the only Republican who could really jeopardize this seat,” the strategist noted.
The strategist added that the level of concern among Republicans about losing their seats is high: “This is serious alarm stuff.”
Despite this, there appears to be a disconnect between those concerns and the sentiment among Texas’s conservative base.
“While many donors and operatives share these worries, voters seem to support candidates who align with their values,” said a former campaign manager for Cornyn, although he acknowledged that this perspective might not hold in the current race.
In addition, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is contemplating entering the race and has reportedly discussed potential candidacy plans with the White House. In a recent Senate Leadership Fund poll, Hunt garnered 19% support in a three-way contest with Cornyn and Paxton, and he holds a four-point edge over Allred in a direct match-up.
“I think that’s pretty exciting, right?” Hunt commented when asked about the polling figures. He stated he is keeping all options open.
“Honestly, I love my district,” he added. “When you’re well-positioned, it’s easier to make decisions, but I want to see how everything unfolds.”
A major unknown in the race is whether President Trump will weigh in. Paxton is viewed as closely aligned with Trump’s brand and is favored by him, while Cornyn has defended the Senate agenda despite having been critical of Trump in the past. Recently, Cornyn’s office publicized a memo indicating that he votes in agreement with Trump “more than 99% of the time.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is wary of participating in the Senate primary. Sources indicate that members of the president’s team conveyed to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) that strong poll numbers for veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio attributed to significant support for Georgia Sen. John Ossoff (D).
“The White House appears to be in a tough spot, and the lack of support for Cornyn speaks volumes,” the unnamed GOP strategist remarked.
“If Cornyn can’t win his primary, Paxton could put his seat at serious risk, which would not look good for the White House or the President, and frankly, Vice President Harris doesn’t want Texas to slip into Democratic hands either.”
