“You have to view Putin and Russia as an expansionist power,” noted General Lieutenant Colonel Keith Kellogg. He formerly served as President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia and was recently acknowledged for his contributions. “His goal is to revive the Russian Empire—just look at history.”
Putin aims to restore Russia’s status as an imperial power. He expressed this sentiment at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, likening himself to Peter the Great. Yet, Ukraine has been the primary obstacle to this ambition.
In Putin’s vision, reclaiming Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova is just the beginning of reuniting the former Soviet Union. He believed that these three countries, being outside NATO and the EU, could be swiftly returned to Moscow’s control without significant Western intervention. But he miscalculated.
After three and a half years of conflict in Ukraine, Russia is now facing substantial hardships. With 1.1 million casualties and an economy in disarray, it’s increasingly dependent on external assistance from nations like China, North Korea, Iran, and Chechnya. There are signs of fractures within the Collective Security Treaty Organization as well.
Despite these challenges, Putin remains steadfast in his approach. Concerns for the victims and Russian citizens, particularly those outside major cities, don’t seem to be guiding his decisions. His main objective continues to be the total subjugation of Ukraine, an aim still unrealized.
In the midst of turmoil, Putin seeks to project an image of strength, often referencing historical battles, like Stalingrad. He seems to be relying on local narratives to evoke memories of Russia’s once formidable reputation.
Stalin’s nickname—“Man of Steel”—symbolizes strength and fear. Many Russians recall the brutal political purges that characterized Stalin’s rule until his death in 1953. He is associated with the deaths of millions during a harsh regime, which left an indelible mark on the nation’s collective memory.
Under his successor, Nikita Khrushchev, there was a renewed sense of safety for ordinary citizens. Putin acknowledges Stalin’s impact, both domestically and abroad, emphasizing that it’s important not to forget his role in Russia’s wartime victories. This message resonates deeply with Russians, especially in light of their ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
However, Putin’s nostalgic trip down history lane might face obstacles. Trump, in an unexpected move, indicated on social media that Ukraine is making significant gains and, with support from the EU and U.S. arms, could reclaim its territory—something he has not suggested before.
As Trump references Putin, the once-mighty dictator now resembles Khrushchev more than Peter the Great. Like Khrushchev during the Cuban missile crisis, it seems Putin may not fully grasp the boundaries set by the U.S. president.
Economically, Putin faces a dire situation. As highlighted by Trump, Russia’s economy is deteriorating, especially within its oil and energy sectors. Ukraine’s attacks on these infrastructures could lead to major losses—up to one million barrels a day.
Putin might be approaching a pivotal moment, reminiscent of Mikhail Gorbachev’s leadership when the costs of military actions in Afghanistan led to significant changes. Back then, the Russian populace, including many mothers, became increasingly dissatisfied. Gorbachev, although he survived attempts to oust him, ended up weakened amidst the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, Putin appears to need distractions in Eastern Europe to justify a full mobilization of resources. He may provoke a NATO miscalculation, a perceived threat, that could solidify his regime’s grip on power.
This might shed light on recent incidents, like a Russian drone attack in Poland or the presence of MIG-31s in Estonian airspace. Perhaps he overestimated the impact of these actions on NATO’s support for Ukraine.
Regardless, Putin’s calculations seem off. In response, NATO has ramped up its presence through the East Sentry Air Patrol to safeguard against potential Russian aggression. Discussions are also emerging regarding the establishment of a no-fly zone over western Ukraine.
If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, it could lead to significant challenges for the regime. Just last week, it seemed like Putin was regaining ground, but now, thanks to Trump’s recent comments, it appears that things may not progress as quickly as he hopes.
Colonel (ret.) Jonathan Sweet has extensive experience in military intelligence and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toss writes about national security and foreign policy.
