Ranking every NFL team based on their Super Bowl probability at Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving might just get a little intense this year.

Let’s face it: nobody wants an awkward encounter over turkey. So, if Uncle Ricky dives into his medical tales or Aunt Lisa starts chatting about tariffs, shift the focus. Bring up football scores or maybe shout about the Packers to change the mood.

We’ve categorized all 32 teams into various tiers, ranking those with real playoff potential.

“Good luck next year” tier

If you support these teams, well, now’s the time. Let’s go outside and enjoy some fresh air. And once you get back home, maybe queue up that college movie to scout some prospects.

“A little assistance required” tier

These teams could reach the Super Bowl, but they’re going to need some luck—whether that’s getting players healthy or simply finding their form.

The Panthers, as an example, are unpredictable. One week they can take down the Cowboys and Packers, and the next they falter against the Saints. With a 6-6 record, that might feel like success, but can they really make the playoffs? Probably only if other contenders fall apart.

The Cowboys are clinging to hope but need a miracle to reach the postseason. They’re unlikely to overtake the Eagles in their division and will only have a shot at a wildcard. It seems too many mistakes have led to their current slump.

Pittsburgh is reminiscent of last season. They kicked off strong but found themselves on the losing end against the Ravens. Aaron Rodgers is dealing with an injury, which could be detrimental with tough matchups on the horizon.

The Jaguars scored a road victory in overtime last week – a win to cherish in the NFL!

Expect to see Jacoby Brissett against the Cardinals in 2025.

Determining if this year’s Jaguars are better or worse than last year is tricky. There are still wins possible, especially with upcoming games against the Titans and Jets, but their performance could heavily influence their trajectory.

Bears fans might feel slighted by their ranking, but reality is the matches they’ve won are against weaker opponents. Their highlight was narrowly beating the Steelers, but that doesn’t suggest they’re a serious playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are struggling with injuries; Mayfield has a shoulder issue that’s hampered performance.

While Tampa Bay seems secure, increasing injuries make a successful run to the top unlikely unless fortunes change dramatically.

This matchup is ultimately all about defense.

The question is whether the Texans offense can meet expectations. Perhaps CJ Stroud’s return will turn things around.

The Chargers seemed like Super Bowl contenders earlier but injuries have changed that narrative. They have tremendous talent, but navigated through injuries will be a true test for the coaching staff.

“Promising potential” tier

Fans have hope in these teams, but converting that into playoff success remains the challenge.

You can’t count out the Chiefs. They’re like an NFL zombie—they just keep coming back. Even if this season has had its ups and downs, they still have a playoff shot. With Andy Reid at the helm, their game strategy remains formidable.

The Lions are dealing with issues on their offensive line right now.

That’s been evident in Jared Goff’s recent outings.

He thrived under pressure in the first half of the season. Pro Football Focus numbers indicate he had a 73.3% adjusted completion percentage while under duress, showcasing strength among current passers.

But these past three weeks told a different story, with a drop to just 45%, landing him lower in the rankings. It’s clearly an area for Detroit to address soon.

The Bills have shown promise every Sunday, but recently it feels like those Sundays are dwindling. Josh Allen’s talent isn’t enough to mask some glaring issues in the lineup.

San Francisco’s coaching has been brilliant. The Niners are surviving injury struggles better than anyone else this season, making them a formidable opponent as they navigate the competition.

The Packers appear capable of going far. They have a strong squad on paper, but it doesn’t always translate into wins, which is a concern.

Jordan Love shows great potential when things go right, but under pressure, he seems to force plays unnecessarily. It leaves an impression of a team trying to balance future-building while remaining competitive right now.

The Ravens might end up as the most threatening team in this group. With their recent successes, including multiple championships, they have the capability to surprise anyone.

They’re currently leading a weak division, but they need to refine their performance down the stretch to meet expectations.

Indianapolis had a strong start, but recent games raise eyebrows. For instance, their overtime loss to the Chiefs doesn’t seem worrying at first glance, but upon digging deeper, the lingering issues during crucial drives are clear.

Keep an eye on their upcoming matches. With tough games ahead, including against the Jaguars and Texans, their pace could very well slow.

One can understand the concern brewing in Indianapolis.

And if you thought the Patriots might be climbing, they’ve certainly exceeded expectations this season, racking up 10 wins already.

But let’s not forget the relative ease of their schedule, which has skewed perceptions of their strength. Future matchups against the Bills and Ravens will be crucial.

Injuries on the offensive line, particularly with first-round pick Will Campbell, could pose more issues for rookie Drake Maye.

“Time to consider travel plans” tier

We’re now looking at the top-tier teams.

While it’s probably early for Super Bowl hotel bookings, keep an eye on the prices.

The Broncos have turned heads, managing to upset opponents despite some ongoing doubts around them. Their strong rankings in pass and run defense can’t be overlooked, allowing less than 18 points per game.

Yes, they may have lost to the Rams recently, extending that team’s lead, but Seattle still managed to put themselves in a position to win, despite Sam Darnold’s missteps.

Seattle’s defense is thriving, and upcoming matchups include the Vikings and Falcons. Watching how they fare against those teams will be interesting before facing tougher opponents.

When the Eagles are on form, they truly shine. But last week’s situation against the Cowboys was particularly rough. After a rapid lead, they found themselves scrambling, ultimately losing.

This defeat has placed them at a pivotal moment. They could learn from this and push on, or risk slipping back to previous seasons of underwhelming performance.

The Rams, too, seem increasingly hard to overlook. Matthew Stafford is having a potentially MVP-worthy season, and with solid additions to their roster, they are looking strong.