Every game other than the playoff bowl has a lot of unknowns, and the Rate Bowl really reflects that mystery.
Both Rutgers and Kansas State will be playing without key players, but there is no clear evidence that either team is more focused or prepared. So how do you handicap a puzzle like this?
I had subscribed to the blind rule of when in doubt, embrace the weak. After all, oddsmakers and betting markets don't exactly know the power rankings for these types of bowl games.
For example, in Tuesday's Hawaii Bowl, San Jose State initially opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the spread peaked at 4.5 points. However, in the hours leading up to kickoff, the winner changed hands, with South Florida now the favorite by 1.5 points. As expected, the Bulls won the game in five overtimes, 51-49, and for most of the process they were able to turn the deficit into their favor.
The Scarlet Knights will be playing without stud senior running back Kyle Monangai, who ranks in the top three in the Big Ten in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He was the bell cow for a relatively limited Rutgers offense, posting 23.3 attempts per game.
The Wildcats also need to replace production, but they won't reach the same level as Rutgers. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson will be playing, and I think that's the difference. Too many times, Rutgers struggled against a strong quarterback and a solid offense. I don't think we can maintain our scoring pace without Monangai.
Rutgers QB Ahsan Kaliakmanis can surprise us and deliver more if called upon. Additionally, Greg Schiano is a solid coach with a strong track record in bowl games.
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But at their peak, the Wildcats were one of the more highly regarded teams. They started the year with a 7-1 record and were ranked 16th. And I'm a big fan of coach Chris Klieman, and I hope he can get the team in the right mindset and win this unknown game.
THE Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110, ESPN BET)
