Ravens vs. Bills will be a kaiju fight between two of the NFL’s scariest monster offenses

Usually I talk about specific matchups in this section. What one side of the ball needs to do relative to the other side, or what I'm looking at. But this monster battle between two of the best attacking players in football actually reminded me of the words of Norman Osborne, one of the world's greatest secretaries.

The tie-up fight between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills was the pinnacle of bully ball in the NFL, a matchup between two teams that morphed their offenses into more physical and ground-based en route to great success in the NFL. , and we also had help from Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. These two offenses are very similar in their goals, but how they approach them is what separates the two paths.

The Baltimore Ravens are the pinnacle of physical football. With three tight ends ready to play, a 300-pound fullback in Patrick Ricard and a 380-pound guard in Daniel Faalele block 250-pound attacks. norse god Running back Derrick Henry. Baltimore loves condensing sets, running power and counters, and is one of the best teams in the NFL at that. On those gap runs, Henry ranks second in the NFL in EPA per carry behind Saquon Barkley, and his success rate on those carries is a whopping 59.1%. That's also when you're facing the most defenders in the box. you know The Ravens will try to hit you hard, but the problem will be stopping them. I love how they use RB Patrick Ricard in an influence motion and bring him to the other side of the formation to get a running start before Faalele comes on.

So, if you do the math, as a defender, you have to attack Ricard at 300 pounds and Faalele at 380 pounds before you have a chance to attack Henry. Good luck.

Where they can further their impact is with the counter game they won against Pittsburgh. You can see Patrick Queen getting really fired up to get over the top of this run thinking the down block is coming from the right, but they switch it up and he overruns it. Sometimes he made big plays.

Now, just because the Ravens have heavier personnel doesn't mean they can't throw it away. With Charlie Kohler back, all three tight ends could be a factor in the passing game, and the Ravens would like to attack downfield with 22 players. Baltimore's EPA per play is an impressive 0.42. Jackson has an average throw depth of 8.4 yards per 22, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken has done a great job of incorporating throws to all parts of the field, with tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews ( He recorded an amazing finish) and attacked. season). This pitch against the Bills in Week 4 was notable not only for the way it was pitched, but also for the way both teams attacked each other. The Ravens are likely cut off the line and are running a beautiful sail concept with Andrews on board, while the Bills are on base personnel. As Lamar makes more throws, the Ravens have an explosive.

In fact, the Bills are very good against the 21, allowing -0.14 EPA per play. I think this is because slot corner Taron Johnson is on the field so he can still play nickel. Johnson missed the Ravens' first game along with LBs Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, so it will be interesting to see if they try to play nickel against the Ravens' more stout personnel. The Bills are not a gap control team. Against offenses that play 21 or 22 players, they try to sell out against the run and put too many people in the box to give the run game any space. It's worth noting how they defended this play against the Broncos, resulting in a 3-yard gain. With this motion, Johnson enters the box, but is late and spins S Damar Hamlin into the box to steal the back number. Johnson slams a FB, but Ed Oliver double-teams him, allowing Bernard to move freely. This isn't a gap run, but the lever pull is notable.

It's worth noting that the Bills are giving up 0.26 EPA per play and 0.52 EPA per pass against the 22, despite being very good against the 21. Part of the reason this number is so high is because they are forced to have their base personnel on the field with three linebackers. Will they play that card against Baltimore and hope they don't get hit with an explosive pass? Or do they play Johnson and hope not to give up Derrick Henry's lightning bolt?

On the flip side, the Bills' offense has changed from a spread-and-shredding offense to a run offense that hits midfielders in the face, and they are benefiting from this change. Despite not throwing the ball as often in neutral situations, he was able to achieve a higher EPA per play than ever before. No matter what the press says, running that damn ball is actually very beneficial.

Their most devastating moment was when they joined a huge group with OL Alec Anderson. The Bills use a 6-OL package more than any other team in the NFL, and the effect is devastating. They average 5 yards per carry and 0.05 EPA per play with this style, forcing people into submissions. You can force him to close the edge on toss plays, like in this representative against the Broncos.

Or you could bring him into a blast motion as a puller for a YY counter (essentially like bringing in another lineman, but it's more interesting to call him a tight end):

With Anderson on the field, the Bills can outgrow and crush teams, but they can also throw the ball explosively. They can line up Anderson in different spots and use him as extra protection for Josh Allen to throw the ball downfield. This allows the team to defend its home base and also win the chess match the Bills play.

The Ravens have the best rushing defense in the NFL, but that's largely due to the talent they have up front. Rather than trying to break through gaps, he uses 340-pound Travis Jones and 345-pound Michael Pierce up front to control them. This allows for second level flow from second level Roquan Smith and others. If you can have Jones play like this up front and Broderick Washington can control the gap, Roquan Smith will be free to play and erase this duo's runs.

Notice where LB Malik Harrison is. In these heavier packages, Harrison is an advantage for the Ravens, having the depth of a defensive lineman but also functioning as a coverage piece. I'm saying he can, but I'm not sure the Ravens would be all that willing to put him out in pass coverage. Even though he is the second off-ball LB behind Smith, he is used more as a blitz addition and is kept away from many coverage responsibilities. If the Bills want to attack the passing game