RBC Canadian Open: Odds, predictions, value picks, preview for Canada’s biggest event

Last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge saw PGA Tour players compete at a renovated Colonial Country Club, and this week’s event will also be held on the renovated layout.

Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ontario Underwent an $8.5 million restorationAccording to the PGA Tour, the course has been restored to its original 1916 design by Harry Colt. World-renowned architect Martin Evert completed the work and extended many of the holes to accommodate the modern game.

Hamilton will host the RBC Canadian Open for the seventh time this week, and the first since 2019. That year, Rory McIlroy shot a 9-under 61 on Sunday to win by seven strokes, but the course will look very different.

RBC Canadian Open odds:

Current Odds About the RBC Canadian Open:

  • Rory McIlroy +360
  • Tommy Fleetwood +1600
  • Sahith Teegala +1800
  • Shane Lowry +2200
  • Sam Burns +2200
  • Corey Connors +2200
  • Cameron Young +2200
  • Alex Noren +2200
  • Maverick McNeely +3000
  • Adam Scott +3000
  • Mackenzie Hughes +3500
  • Keith Mitchell +3500
  • Tom Kim +3500
  • Aaron Lai +3500

Rory McIlroy wins the 2019 RBC Canadian Open.
Photo: Julian Abram/Getty Images

RBC Canadian Open Predictions

Colt’s courses come in all shapes and sizes because he wanted the layout to respond to the terrain, and he also wanted to give players an angle off the tee, so many of Hamilton’s fairways are generously wide, the greens are small and there are tough bunkers surrounding the putting surfaces.

So we think that iron-loving players, especially those who hit a lot of greens, will do well this week.

Aaron Lai is in good form

Not many golf fans may be familiar with Aaron Lye, but the Englishman has quietly finished in the top 10 in strokes gained approaching the green.

The 29-year-old from Wolverhampton also ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in green-in percentage, reaching the putting surface nearly 71 percent of the time, and seventh in distance to the hole with an average distance of 35.5 feet from the cup.

Aaron Lai, PGA Championship

Aaron Lai will be wearing both gloves at the 2024 PGA Championship.
Photo: David Cannon/Getty Images

He has two top 10 finishes this year, first at the Texas Children’s Houston Open where he tied for seventh, then tied for fourth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, thanks in large part to a final round of 7-under 64.

Still, I’m +330 on Lye’s +330 chance to post his third top-10 finish this week – he tied for 39th at the PGA Championship and most recently tied for 32nd at Colonial – but given the weak field, Lye will have to rely on his iron play to win in Canada.

Canadian reserves scattered across the leaderboard

Who could forget the crowning moment of the 2023 PGA Tour season when Nick Taylor shocked his native Canada by sinking a 72-foot eagle putt to win the RBC Canadian Open?

We can only hope that such drama repeats, but we believe Canadian athletes will be near the top of the rankings.

Corey Connors, PGA Championship

Corey Connors in the 2024 PGA Championship.
Photo: Scott Tetch/Getty Images

Corey Connors, who ranks second in green-in percentage this year behind Scottie Scheffler, will be the last one to go. DraftKings has him at +2200 to win, but we’re backing Connors to finish in the top five at +450.

Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes are also Canadians to watch in their home state. Neither player is particularly good with the irons, but this tournament means a lot to the Canadians. Sometimes things just fall into place at the right time — just ask Taylor a year ago. So Hadwin at +450 and Hughes at +360 are worthwhile to finish in the top 10.

Rory McIlroy falls short

Rory McIlroy enters Hamilton as the overwhelming favorite to win, with odds of +360 to win putting him in Scottie Scheffler territory.

Everyone knows McIlroy hits the ball hard off the tee, which is an advantage on any golf course, including Hamilton, but he’s struggled with his iron shots at times this season, with a tendency to pull his approaches and miss left, which has sometimes proved costly.

Additionally, there have been a ton of outside voices talking about McIlroy this week, with his recent divorce and other rumors leading us to believe he won’t win in Canada this time around.

Given the lack of firepower in the field, he has a good chance of winning, but the top-five and top-10 finish odds just don’t make him worth it.

Long shot winner

Patton Kizziel, PGA Tour, Myrtle Beach Classic

Patton Kizziel during the final round of the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic.
Photo: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Patton Kiziel missed the cut six straight times from late January through late March, but has turned things around over the past month.

He tied for 23rd at the Corales Punta Cana Championship and recently finished tied for 10th at the Myrtle Beach Classic after posting three rounds in the 60s.

His fortunes have changed thanks to his strong iron play. Kizier ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approaches to the green, third in greens in regulation percentage and ninth in proximity to the hole.

In Myrtle Beach, Kizzir’s driving and putting also improved, which helped him a lot. However, his biggest weakness is his short game. Still, if he can keep putting reasonably well, he has a chance in Hamilton. We project Kizzir to be +13,000 to win by a long shot.

RBC Canadian Open Champion

Shane Lowry’s last PGA Tour win was at Royal Portrush in 2019, alone of course, on the Harry Colt Course, where he won the British Open.

However, just a month before his breakthrough in Northern Ireland, Lawrie finished tied for second at the RBC Canadian Open in Hamilton. That week, he ranked fifth in strokes gained around the greens and third in strokes gained putting, and his short game helped him finish second.

Shane Lowry, PGA Championship

Shane Lowry in the 2024 PGA Championship.
Photo: Brian Spurlock/Getty Images

Still, with his excellent short game, Lawrie relies on his irons more than anything else. The Irishman ranks 10th on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained on approach shots and 31st in greens in regulation. Plus, he finds more fairways and ranks first on the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy, giving him ample opportunity to hit shots toward the flagstick.

Given the weak field this week and the fact that he has had previous success on this course, Lawry is the +2200 favorite to win. He came close to winning the PGA Championship with a historic 62. He also has top-five finishes at the Cognizant Classic and Bay Hill. McIlroy and Lawry have also won the Zurich Classic in New Orleans.

But Lawrie should win on his own.

A win in Canada would give him a big boost heading into a big three-week period on the PGA Tour that features two signature events on either side of the U.S. Open.

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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.