The 2023-24 European football season will conclude on Saturday with the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund.
For Madrid, it’s business as usual as the most successful club in the competition’s history, as Real are bidding for their 15th Champions League title and their sixth since 2013-14.
Meanwhile, this is the climax of a Cinderella run that nobody saw coming for Dortmund, who were +5000 underdogs when the competition began in September.
Drawn into the “Group of Death” alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United and AC Milan, few expected Dortmund to make it to the knockout stages, and as the club struggled for consistency in the Bundesliga, the doubters became more vocal.
But Dortmund continued to find a way to win, easily beating favoured last-16 opponents PSV Eindhoven.
They then beat Atletico Madrid in two hard-fought legs before shutting out PSG after 180 minutes to reach the final.
Dortmund had a tougher group stage but Madrid faced an even tougher knockout stage, as Real beat RB Leipzig, Manchester City and Bayern Munich on their way to Wembley, en route to winning the La Liga title in the process.
Real Madrid have been one of the best teams in the world for many years, but there has been a common (albeit minor) criticism of this iteration of Real Madrid compared to other elite teams: that Madrid relies too much on individual moments of magic, and that the process is not as solid as that of teams like Manchester City, Liverpool or Bayern Munich.
This year, those criticisms have gone unheeded.
Not only do Madrid continue to benefit from the brilliance of individual stars such as Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrigo, but their statistical profile is one of the best in Europe.
Defensively, Madrid hold their own in La Liga with just 26 goals allowed in 38 games and an expected goals rating of 35.4, so combine those excellent containment figures with their abundance of attacking talent and you have a recipe for great success.
Not only will Dortmund find it difficult to create chances against the Real Madrid defence, but BVB will also have their hands full slowing down the Spanish champions’ attacks.
Dortmund could have reached the Champions League final in a number of different ways and should be given plenty of credit for doing so, but their overall performance this season has been disappointing for a team in this position. Dortmund finished fifth in the Bundesliga in 2023-24, but their statistical profile suggests that was a reasonable result.
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What’s most worrying is that Dortmund’s defensive numbers were generally mediocre, finishing in the middle of the table in expected goals conceded, which will likely not be enough against Real Madrid.
Dortmund’s only chance of winning this game will be to stay as organized as possible and focus on disrupting Madrid rather than forcing the game into their hands, but with this being the final, a Madrid goal would likely force Dortmund to come out of their shell and take control of the game, which could open the door for them to attack.
If Spain can score a goal, they will be able to push harder and it could be a big win.
recommendation: Real Madrid -2.5 goals (+520, FanDuel)
