Republican members of Congress are currently unwilling to negotiate an extension of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credit amid discussions aimed at resolving the government shutdown.
“We’re getting close to the end of the year—December 31st is when it all expires,” said Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) during a briefing on Friday. “I believe it’s possible to find some consensus in October.” However, if Congress doesn’t address the issue, many Americans may start feeling the pinch pretty soon.
Insurance premiums are set based on current conditions, and the open enrollment period for ACA plans will start on November 1st in most states. If your insurance provider thinks your tax credit will run out, you could face premium increases of over 100%.
A recent report from the health policy nonprofit KFF highlighted that Republicans might find themselves in a precarious situation if Democrats successfully communicate the ramifications of inaction. The analysis showed that 77%, or 18.7 million of the 24.3 million enrollees in the ACA market, are in states that Trump won in the 2024 election. These states have benefited from more premium tax credits and increased registration rates compared to others.
In a KFF survey, 78% of adults expressed that they believe Congress should extend the enhanced tax credits. This consensus included 92% of Democrats, 82% of independents, and 59% of Republicans. Interestingly, about 40% of those supporting the extension attributed responsibility to Trump and the Republicans, while only 22% felt the same about Democrats.
State officials caution that the effects could be severe, emphasizing that the timeline is even tighter than November 1st. “It’s crucial to point out that the initial open enrollment starts on October 15th in states like Idaho,” explained Devon Trolley, head of the Pennsylvania Health Insurance Exchange. “These last two weeks may lead to confusion among consumers, which could ultimately harm them.”
Yet, Congressional Republican leaders seem unfazed by the looming threat of soaring insurance premiums. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) firmly stated on Friday that discussions about the ACA tax credit cannot occur until the government shutdown is resolved. “I’ve been in touch with my colleagues across the aisle, but at some point, they need to accept the answer is yes,” Thune said during a press conference. That said, he remains uncertain whether his caucus will ultimately support an extension of Obamacare grants, stating, “We can’t make any commitments; there’s no guarantee of a vote.”
If Congress doesn’t act before the registration period opens at the end of the year, experts fear the sudden increase in premiums might drive consumers out of the market altogether. “We’re really worried about potential sticker shock from a 213% premium increase in some parts of Colorado,” one expert shared. “Once consumers see those prices, they might think, ‘No way am I coming back.’ That could be a tough blow.”
Democrats counter that they will criticize both the shutdown and the impending hikes in premiums that consumers are likely to face next year. “Republicans seem focused on shutting down the government instead of tackling a healthcare crisis that could hurt small businesses across the nation,” said Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.) during a briefing on Friday. “By refusing to extend the healthcare tax credits many depend on, Republicans risk doubling costs for families everywhere.”
The Biden administration managed to set records for ACA registrations for four consecutive years, believing the tax credits played a significant role in nearly 24 million individuals enrolling in 2025. “The impact of these enhancements on coverage is substantial,” one official noted. “If policy changes were to take effect, around 4 million people might end up losing their health insurance. This is a conversation we really need to have.”
On Friday evening, the Democrats’ fourth attempt to resolve the shutdown failed, and Thune was unable to secure enough votes for a straightforward seven-week extension.
