A new alliance of Iranian opposition groups, based in the turbulent southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman, has escalated their armed resistance against the clerical government. This coalition, known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM), has reportedly carried out six attacks, heightening the instability in these areas and raising concerns about the potential for broader armed resistance against Tehran’s regime. There’s also a looming question about the Iranian government’s ability to maintain control in Sistan and Baluchistan, predominantly a Sunni province in a country where Shiite Muslims form the majority.
Over the years, the minority Sunni population has faced discrimination, and the situation in Sistan and Baluchistan—being the second largest province of Iran—has become increasingly complex. Mardo Soghom, an expert on Iranian affairs, noted that this Sunni unrest could stretch the regime’s military capabilities and affect troop morale, particularly after recent U.S. and Israeli operations. The potential backing of these armed groups by Iran’s adversaries, including Gulf Arab states, Israel, or the U.S., remains uncertain.
The Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) recently reported a significant uptick in violence in these regions. In just the last 18 days of a recent reporting period, 18 incidents were recorded, which surpasses the totals from any full previous month. More broadly, HRANA documented 63 armed incidents from March to October in Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman, resulting in numerous fatalities and injuries.
The emergence of the JMM dates back to December 2025 when it formed through different Baloch nationalist organizations and the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl. Notably, they surprised the regime with targeted assassinations of female Basij members, including a commander and a police officer, further illustrating the depth of the conflict.
Jason Brodsky from United Against Nuclear Iran remarked that while the trend of unrest has been ongoing, the current spikes reflect a more serious situation. He emphasized that the newly appointed commander of the IRGC’s Ground Forces has experience in managing security challenges in this sensitive area.
Interestingly, Khalilullah Balochi, a Baluch journalist, claimed that while the activity from these groups isn’t new, the intensity and frequency of attacks certainly are. Meanwhile, Navid Mohebbi, a former media analyst, highlighted that these attacks against mid-ranking officials are impacting public perception, striking a chord with some Iranians at a time when the government is facing widespread criticism for its harsh measures against protesters.
Mohebbi cautioned, however, that many people harbor distrust toward such groups, primarily due to fears of separatism and radical ideology, which run counter to the desires of a more secular Iranian society. He praised the JMM for focusing on broader national liberation rather than separatist aims, suggesting this could help them in gaining public support.
While Beni Sabti, an expert from Israel, acknowledged that the coalition possesses significant firepower, he pointed out that the armed rebellion remains confined to Baluchistan. Observations reveal a lack of central government control reminiscent of regions struggling with militia influence in parts of South America. He noted the challenges in reporting from these unrest-laden areas, stating that the IRGC is actively engaged in countering the Baluch threats, but the extent of these armed groups’ impact is yet unclear. They can inflict damage, but capturing ground remains a distant goal.
