Debunking the Homerun Derby “Curse”

The idea that winning the annual Homerun Derby brings about a slump in the second half of the season is, well, intriguing. Some believe that the intense swing mechanics and high effort required for the Derby can disrupt a player’s rhythm and plate discipline.

However, recent analysis of the last four Derby champions suggests that this so-called “curse” might not be as real as it sounds. Take Cal Laurie from Seattle, for example. He’s likely to keep being a strong asset for fantasy managers in the latter half of 2025.

Let’s look back at last season’s winner, Tescal Hernandez. He entered the Derby with a batting average of .261, tallying 19 home runs and 62 RBIs before the All-Star break. In the Derby itself, he managed to hit 19 home runs in the first round, continued onto the finals, and narrowly defeated Bobby Whitt with an additional 14 home runs to claim victory.

For someone who usually hovers around 32 home runs like he did in 2021, when MLB altered its ball composition, the second half of his season didn’t see a drop-off. In fact, his strikeout rate stayed within his career averages, and his batting average even experienced a 20-point increase.

Then there’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He won the derby in 2023 and didn’t seem affected by any curse at all. His first-half stats showed a .274 batting average, with 13 home runs and a 15.6% strikeout rate. Post-Derby, while his average dipped slightly, he actually maintained the same home run tally in fewer games while lowering his strikeout rate to 13.4%. His talent remained unchanged.

Juan Soto’s victory in 2022 is frequently used as proof of the curse, but context matters here. Before the Derby, Soto was batting .250, with 20 home runs and a 13.7% strikeout rate. After winning, he was traded to San Diego, and his performance flagged, averaging .231 with only seven home runs and a 15.5% strikeout rate. Was this a decline in discipline due to the Derby, or did the changes of teams and the new stadium play a role?

Pete Alonso, who won the Derby in 2021, actually gained momentum, hitting more home runs in fewer games. His overall plate discipline and batting average improved by nearly 30 points in the second half, rewarding fantasy managers who took a chance on him.

The numbers tell a somewhat consistent story. Three out of the last four Derby winners have either maintained or improved their stats post-Derby. Soto’s decline seems linked to external circumstances rather than the event itself. As for Laurie, his solid power metrics and adaptability signal that he’s a reliable choice to sidestep this mythical curse. Fantasy managers could place him on their rosters with confidence, anticipating a surge in home runs and RBI contributions as the season progresses. In essence, the Homerun Derby spotlights power rather than ruining swings.