The Democratic primary in Massachusetts is shaping up to be quite a contest, with Rep. Seth Moulton not quite catching up to Sen. Ed Markey, as recent polls indicate.
It’s considered one of the more hotly contested races in the nation. Earlier surveys revealed Markey, who leans more left, leading Moulton by a significant margin—up to 20 points, according to Axios.
Markey, at 79, has held onto his seat since 2013 and benefits from the backing of the Democratic establishment. Meanwhile, the 47-year-old Moulton, trying to claim Markey’s position, has opened up his campaign with some vigor.
Last month, a Suffolk University/Boston poll showed Markey ahead of Moulton by 47% to 30%.
Markey enjoys the support of influential figures like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, while Moulton has found allies among more centrists, including groups like VoteVets PAC and the Massachusetts Teamsters.
The latest Emerson College survey suggests Markey’s lead is tightening, pegging him at 37% and Moulton at 32%, with nearly a third of voters still undecided. Interestingly, only about 2% hinted at backing another candidate.
“Senator Markey has a 13-point edge among registered Democrats, but it’s worth noting that Congressman Moulton is actually ahead among independent voters, leading 38% to 32%,” remarked Spencer Kimball, the head of Emerson College Polling. He added, “While women show a preference for Markey, men are almost evenly split.” Markey leads among women at 37% versus Moulton’s 29%. But with men, 38% lean towards Moulton, and 37% towards Markey.
This poll was taken on May 3 and 4, encompassing 451 likely voters in the Democratic primary. The margin of error stands at about 4.5%.
Looking at voter demographics, Markey is ahead by 7% among those under 50, with Moulton trailing slightly within that group—33% to 26%. Meanwhile, for voters older than 50, Markey receives 40% support vs. Moulton’s 38%.
“Interestingly, Markey’s core supporters, particularly younger voters and women, seem to be more uncertain about their choices compared to their male counterparts,” Kimball pointed out. In fact, 10% more women are undecided than men, and a striking 39% of those below 50 are still weighing their options, compared to just 21% of older voters.
Both candidates have been noted for having lower favorability ratings compared to Warren. Notably, Markey shares Warren’s unfavorable rating of 35%, while Moulton’s sits at 26%.
The primary is set for September 1st, and the dynamic seems to be shifting as the date approaches.
