Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan says he believes he will hold onto his Alaska seat, even as he trails Democratic challenger Mary Peltola and faces allegations of a so-called “Decoy Dan” scheme.
As of Thursday morning, with about 75% of the vote counted, Sullivan was 637 votes behind Peltola. Another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, whom Peltola’s campaign has been accused of recruiting to draw votes away from the senator, had received 1.7%.
Neither leading candidate has passed 50%: Peltola has 48.2% and Sullivan 47.9%. That means the race is likely to proceed to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting tabulation.
Sullivan’s campaign said it remained optimistic, arguing that he could win despite what it called the largest election-cheating scandal in Alaska history and a difficult election night for Republicans across the country.
An analysis of the ranked-choice process suggests Sullivan could gain roughly 2,728 votes if Republican Gerald Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan are eliminated. Peltola, by comparison, could receive an estimated 1,868 votes through redistribution.
The state is expected to tabulate ranked-choice ballots on November 18, when properly postmarked absentee ballots are due. Speaking to supporters on election night, Sullivan said the contest was always expected to be close and that the state’s voting process meant results could take days. He said he was confident he would be re-elected to another six-year term once all ballots were counted.
A Sullivan victory could avert a dispute over certification. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy recently suggested he might refuse to certify the result if Peltola won amid credible allegations of misconduct.
The New York Times has reported claims that Peltola’s campaign sought out people with names similar to Sullivan’s, including Dan J. Sullivan of Petersburg, who ultimately appeared on the ballot. The report drew on information from Peltola’s former campaign manager and followed earlier complaints about her from former staff members.
Dunleavy told NewsNation that if the state found illegal activity, officials would respond, and the findings could affect whether a candidate takes a seat in the Senate. Sullivan has described the allegations as an unprecedented election-cheating scandal in Alaska, and possibly one of the largest in Senate history.
Peltola campaigned on a pledge to fix what she called a rigged system in Washington that was hurting Alaska. During her previous time in Congress, she introduced 23 bills and resolutions, none of which became law. She also missed 235 of 1,370 roll-call votes and had the House’s second-highest staff turnover rate in her final year in office.
Alaska’s Division of Elections is not expected to release official results until November 25.
