Analysis finds data center counties shifted toward Democrats in midterms

Deep-red counties with large data centers or proposed projects moved further toward Democrats in last week’s midterm elections than similar counties without such developments, according to an analysis by conservative AI safety group Humans First.

The group reviewed election results and data center project records for 1,540 counties in 16 states. Across the counties studied, those hosting large data centers shifted 2.2 percentage points more toward Democrats than non-host counties in the same states. The pattern appeared in 14 states and 25 of the 27 governor and Senate races examined.

In counties President Donald Trump carried by at least 20 points in 2024, the unadjusted gap between those with large data centers and comparable counties without projects was 2.1 points. For deep-red counties where projects are still proposed, the gap was 1.1 points after the analysis accounted for factors including past voting, population, rural or urban status, racial and ethnic makeup, and recent voting trends.

Humans First identified 114 proposed large data center projects in 92 deep-red counties, suggesting the issue could prompt further local disputes. In the group’s analysis, Republican vote totals fell an additional 1.1% in deep-red counties with data centers, while Democratic totals did not show a significant change.

The findings show a relationship, not proof that data center development changed how people voted. County-level results also cannot reveal whether Republican voters switched sides or simply did not vote.

Humans First Chairwoman Amy Kremer said the analysis tracked how counties with data centers voted and how their results shifted. She argued that people become politically engaged when an issue touches their daily lives, including household finances, health care, family, homes and local communities. In her view, data center development brings those concerns together.

In September, the group’s “Data Center Revolt” bus tour made 35 stops across 27 states, including 14 stops in states covered by the analysis. Nine stops were in deep-red counties with large data center projects. Those counties shifted 2.2 points further toward Democrats after controls were applied, compared with a 0.75-point shift among deep-red host counties overall. Humans First said the nine counties had not shown a similar gap between 2020 and 2024.

The results do not show whether the tour affected voting, or whether opposition to data center projects was already stronger in the places it visited.

Separately, voters supported limits on data center development or rejected measures backing projects in 46 of 47 local ballot measures in 2026, according to Ballotpedia. The measures covered a range of proposals, including development restrictions and advisory questions.

Kremer framed the debate as one of local control, saying communities should be able to decide whether projects move forward. She also argued that residents often have little opportunity to weigh in before plans are made, pointing to deals negotiated behind closed doors, nondisclosure agreements and shell companies.

She said data center projects can affect local quality of life and household costs, including electricity and water expenses. Kremer also criticized tax incentives for large technology companies, arguing that the public bears costs while wealthy firms receive abatements.

The debate comes as officials consider how data centers should pay for the electricity and grid infrastructure they require. The Energy Department estimates that data centers used 4.7% of U.S. electricity in 2024. In its reference case, that share could reach 11.8% by 2030.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has directed regional grid operators to develop safeguards against shifting the costs of serving large electricity users onto other customers. Those steps do not establish that data centers raised household electricity rates in the counties included in the Humans First analysis.

Tax incentives differ by state. The National Conference of State Legislatures says at least 38 states offer incentives specifically for data centers, such as exemptions from equipment taxes and, in some states, electricity or property taxes. The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group, says the incentives are comparable to those offered to other capital-intensive industries and argues that data centers bring jobs, investment and tax revenue.

Humans First is not calling for a nationwide or statewide pause on data center construction. Kremer said communities should be free to approve or reject projects, including choosing a moratorium if that is what residents want.

She said data center development brings together concerns about finances, health care, family and local communities, and argued that the projects played a role in the election. Kremer said she hopes communities will have more say over what is built where they live.