Senate Republicans are anxious that President Trump and Elon Musk’s escalating feud might lead Musk to establish a new political party that could take votes away from the GOP in 2026.
Lawmakers in the GOP argue that third-party candidates have disrupted presidential and Senate races in the past. They believe Musk’s ambition to form an “American Party” may likely siphon more votes from Republican candidates than from Democrats in key elections.
If Musk moves forward with his plans, he’s expected to focus on reducing federal debt, which typically resonates with conservative voters. He has also signaled his intention to back significant challenges to Republican fiscal conservatives who supported Trump’s major proposals.
Recently, Musk created a significant political headache for Republicans by critiquing Trump’s initiatives, labeling them as driven by “nastiness” and cautioning that they could jeopardize millions of American jobs.
While GOP representatives express doubt that a party led by Musk could realistically secure congressional seats, they worry that such candidates might upset the balance in close races against Democrats.
Sen. Ron Johnson from Wisconsin has cautioned that Musk’s actions could threaten Republican dominance in both the White House and Congress.
When asked about Musk’s potential party, Johnson gave a noncommittal response, suggesting he believes Musk’s involvement could complicate Republican candidate unity and policymaking.
“He’s going to divide our party,” he asserted, adding that some within the GOP are worried about the deficit, unlike their Democratic counterparts.
Johnson remarked it’s clear Musk’s new venture could be more detrimental to Republicans than Democrats, urging his party to be more proactive about addressing national debt as midterm elections approach.
“We’d benefit from presenting united efforts to curtail spending within our ranks,” he noted.
A recent Quinnipiac University survey indicated 62% of registered Republicans view Musk positively, compared to only 29% of independents and 3% of Democrats.
In states like Montana, third-party candidates have historically affected Republican chances, with some GOP members criticizing libertarians in recent elections for helping Democrats secure victories.
For instance, libertarian Phil Anderson and American Party candidate Thomas Liger might take votes from Republican Eric Hoffde in the upcoming Senate race against Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat.
Sen. Jerry Moran from Kansas reflected on this, acknowledging that while third-party candidates can influence elections, they rarely become significant enough to claim control.
He believes the personal conflict between Musk and Trump might be viewed by voters as Musk’s quest for revenge more than a political movement.
“Politics shifts constantly, and we need to be mindful of these trends,” Moran stated, expressing concerns about capturing voters’ attention in unexpected ways.
Despite third-party candidates often struggling to attain significant support, Musk’s capacity to inject substantial funding into campaigns could make his backed candidates formidable contenders.
“Financial support is crucial; Musk has the resources to elevate candidates effectively,” he explained.
Musk reportedly spent over $290 million in the 2024 elections, which could give any party he supports a significant edge.
Retired Sen. Tom Tillis from North Carolina shared concerns about third-party candidates generally hurting Republican outcomes in elections.
“History shows that such attempts tend to harm Republicans,” he said, suggesting Musk would do better to advocate for change within the existing two-party framework.
A Republican senator speaking on condition of anonymity likened Musk to Ross Perot, who emerged as a spoiler in the 1992 election by capturing nearly 20% of the vote.
Some believe Musk’s frustration with Trump stems from unmet expectations during his brief stint as a government official, indicating he may be acting out of discontent.
Musk had previously threatened to support significant challenges to Republicans who had committed to reducing the federal deficit but then supported Trump’s major spending bill, expressing his disappointment.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged that Musk’s candidates could draw votes away from the GOP but suggested predicting the exact political consequences is complex, noting that Democrats might also be affected.
“Can it happen? Absolutely,” Thune remarked on Musk’s possible impact on upcoming Senate races, suggesting it could draw support from multiple voters, including disillusioned Democrats.
Facing a competitive primary, Sen. John Cornyn from Texas refrained from discussing Musk’s potential role, noting the freedom he has to act as he sees fit.
“It’s a free country; third parties have existed before,” he remarked, referencing prior independent campaigns.
Democratic strategist Steve Jarding argued Musk might significantly influence future congressional control.
“He can recruit under his new party and fully fund candidates to remain competitive,” he claimed.
Jarding emphasized that if Musk’s intention is to challenge Trump, he could strategically target key House and Senate races with substantial financial backing.
He noted that with adequate funding, Musk-backed candidates could shift the balance in closely contested elections.
“This guy has the potential to fundamentally alter the upcoming elections; it’s all about the money,” he concluded.
