Republicans are actively trying to reclaim the upper hand in the ongoing government shutdown debate, attempting to put Democrats on the defensive. Recent polls suggest a shift in blame toward Democrats for the funding deadlock, giving Republicans a sense of renewed momentum.
Following last week’s challenging moments that exposed divisions regarding health care, Republicans are regrouping. They managed to force Democrats to vote twice on a funding measure from the House, which passed without allowing political cover for Democrats to support alternative proposals related to government funding and health care costs. However, the Senate blocked this bill once again on Wednesday.
On Thursday, Senate Republicans plan to advance a significant defense spending bill, framing it as a decisive move against Democrats by highlighting the adverse effects of the shutdown on military families.
In response, Democrats argue that Republicans are responsible for the shutdown because they control the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Despite this, Republicans have found some promising indicators in recent polling data. Although more Americans currently blame Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown, there’s a notable rise in the number of voters attributing blame to Democrats as well.
Polling data show that while 39% of respondents hold Republicans accountable, 33% blame Democrats. In a similar survey from the previous week, the numbers were less favorable for Democrats, with 41% blaming Republicans compared to 30% for Democrats.
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina pointed out that the toll of canceled flights and disrupted basic services might contribute to public disapproval of the current situation, suggesting that as the shutdown drags on, more attention will focus on the need for a clean continuing resolution that addresses health care issues.
Graham expressed a willingness to discuss health insurance affordability, but only outside the current shutdown context. One unnamed Democratic senator indicated that there’s a faction of nervous centrist Democrats eager to support a government reopening bill if President Trump compromises on health care matters.
There were signs of division among Republicans in the early stages of the shutdown, especially when Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized GOP leaders over health care subsidies. Nonetheless, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has managed to maintain unity among Senate Republicans by postponing discussions on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies until a new government is established.
Thune urged Democrats to support the currently available short-term bipartisan funding resolution, saying that the Senate will bring the House funding bill to a vote on Thursday. He argued that just a handful of committed Democrats could make a difference in overcoming the impasse.
Republicans initially floundered last week when President Trump unexpectedly suggested a willingness to negotiate with Democrats, which contradicted their strategic messaging. However, he has since adopted a more disciplined approach, which may allow Republicans to take a more assertive stance in the upcoming week.
Last Tuesday, Thune pressured Democrats into voting on the House-passed reopening bill, marking the first time since the October 1 shutdown that such a vote occurred without them also considering alternative proposals. Out of the Democratic caucus, only three senators supported the bill: Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada, John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, and Angus King from Maine, an independent who aligns with Democrats.
Thune is keen to restore the usual spending process, particularly following unexpected moves on the defense bill that may have caught Democrats off guard. If Democrats back the defense package, it could contradict their previous opposition to a funding measure that faced multiple rejections on the Senate floor.
Democrats have turned down a suggestion to reopen the government in exchange for extending health care subsidies, favoring instead “real negotiations” to tackle the impending crisis. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and other leaders have called for discussions with Trump and Republican leadership, but specific conditions for supporting the short-term funding bill remain unclear.
While Schumer has been under scrutiny for asserting that “every day gets better” amid the shutdown, he defended his remarks by emphasizing the increasing seriousness of the health care crisis, citing letters from insurance companies warning about premium hikes, including a case in a Republican district that could see premiums surge dramatically.
At the same time, House Speaker Mike Johnson is keeping the House in recess, hoping Senate Democrats will eventually support the House-passed resolution to extend funding until November 21.
The dynamic tension in the conflict stems from both parties’ expectations that if Trump concedes significant demands now, minority senators could threaten future shutdowns to secure substantial policy wins. “If we give in here, it will be different next time,” Graham cautioned. “Let’s open up the government and talk about health care.”
