Republican super PACs are now spending unprecedented amounts to support candidates in areas that were once considered safe.
The party is pouring record funds into traditionally Republican states and districts where President Donald Trump had a solid victory in the 2024 election, like Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. There’s growing concern that these historically secure spots could become battlegrounds in the midterms, which might lead to less focus on other key races overall.
Since September 1, three key groups aligned with Trump—MAGA Inc., the No Going Back PAC, and the Safety and Affordability PAC—have collectively shelled out over $163 million on advertising. Nearly 40% of that total, approximately $63 million, has been directed towards states and districts where Trump secured a win by ten percentage points or more in the last presidential election.
In Texas, Republicans are anticipating expenditures between $150 million and $200 million to protect Attorney General Ken Paxton from challenger James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the Senate. The Senate Leadership Fund plans to invest over $100 million in TV ads for Paxton after increasing its ad reservations significantly.(RELATED: Here Are The 20 Biggest Donors In The 2026 Midterm Election Cycle So Far)
As of late August, the Texas Senate race was categorized as a “toss up.” Talarico has drawn criticism for remarks about his favorite drag queen and other controversial statements, stating that God is “non-binary” and referring to transgender youth as “God’s children.”
Paxton’s campaign is complicating due to a series of ethical and personal scandals. Notably, he has faced backlash over a proposed deal regarding a man convicted of child sexual abuse that would have allowed him to serve just one day in jail. Additionally, Paxton’s wife, Republican state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year amid allegations of an affair.
No Going Back PAC Inc. recently declared plans to spend $49 million on ads across seven races, distributing funds strategically: $15 million in Michigan, $11 million in Ohio, $10 million in New Hampshire, and $4 million in Maine.
The Ohio Senate race has become the most costly so far, featuring over $307 million in ad spending from both parties.
Republicans have invested over $152 million to support Ohio Sen. Jon Husted against efforts from former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown to flip Husted’s seat. A crypto-focused super PAC has also allocated $30 million to oppose Brown due to his long history of criticizing the crypto industry.
Since the beginning of August, Republicans have committed more than $110 million in ad bookings aimed at House districts won by Trump by significant margins. This includes support for Republican Rep. Max Miller in Ohio, who is addressing domestic violence allegations while facing a competitive race against Democrat Brian Poindexter.
In Iowa, the GOP has committed around $73 million to bolster its candidates, including Rep. Ashley Hinson who is running against Democrat Josh Turek.
Local conservative commentator Steve Deace expressed serious concerns about Republican prospects in Iowa, suggesting that the situation in Iran could be as damaging politically as the COVID lockdowns were in 2020. He cited concerns over recent polling that suggested a bleak outlook for Republicans, particularly in districts they had previously thought were safe.
Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.
I slept on…
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) September 23, 2026
Republican-aligned groups have invested about $36.4 million in Senate ads as opposed to $21.6 million earmarked by Democrats in Alaska, where incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is facing a strong challenge from former Democratic representative Mary Peltola. There are allegations that another candidate with the same name has entered the race to create voter confusion.
Reports have surfaced indicating troubling behavior from Peltola, including accusations of bullying staff and bizarre requests involving her pet.
In April, the Senate Leadership Fund earmarked $15 million for the Alaska Senate contest, later adding funds for candidates in Michigan and Iowa as well.
Vice President J.D. Vance has been active in campaigning for Republican candidates across several states, including Ohio and Iowa, where he has been supporting gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn and Rep. Zach Nunn, particularly in light of their vulnerable positions in this election cycle.
This election cycle has seen an influx of funding exceeding $1.2 billion from various interest groups and wealthy individuals into campaigns supporting both MAGA Inc. and other political entities as the midterms approach.
