According to voting memorandums from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Republican senatorial candidates have an advantage in three key states that could flip the blue sheet to red, but are in precarious or precarious positions in several other races. Either the Republicans are within striking distance.
Start with your notes published Politico on Tuesday showed Republicans holding an advantage over three Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio and Wisconsin. This is a significant development, given that Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. If the West Virginia Senate race collapses as expected, and the Republican incumbents are successful in taking these three races home and defending their seats, they would have a majority of at least 53 seats.
In Montana, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy comfortably leads Sen. Jon Tester by 8 points, 50% to 42%, according to the NRSC polling notes. Additionally, Sheehy's favorability is +5 points, while Tester's is 2 points underwater.
In the red state of Ohio, with three weeks until the election, Republican Bernie Moreno leads Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) by a 45% to 43% margin. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump holds an 11-point lead in the presidential race. Race.
“These results demonstrate that Mr. Moreno continues to pick up the Republican momentum he needs to secure victory in November,” NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman wrote in a memo. There is.
NRSC spokesman Mike Berg noted that this is the first time the Senate Republican campaign arm has brought Moreno to the fore.
According to the memo, Republican businessman Eric Hovde holds a 48% to 47% lead over Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in the Wisconsin Senate race in a head-to-head race. . According to the memo, this is the first time Hovde has topped the NRSC poll, and appears to be surging at a critical time. When third-party candidates were included in the vote, the tie was 46%.
“Mr. Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue to grow and solidify support while increasing Mr. Baldwin's negative ratings and lowering her standing on the ballot,” the memo asserts.
The memo also shows the races in Michigan and Pennsylvania are even.
In the Wolverine State, former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) are tied for 48% of the vote each; It's tied 49% to 48%. Percentage Advantage of Total Ballots. The Senate Leadership Fund revealed Tuesday morning that commit $10.5 million to shore up Rodgers on the home line of the race after a solid performance in the second debate Monday night.
In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Dave McCormick is trailing Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) by one point. Mr. McCormick received 43 percent and Mr. Casey 44 percent. A further 4% prefer third-party options.
If Republicans win all five districts (Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Republicans will win West Virginia and keep all the rest (primarily Florida and Texas). Assuming that, they would control at least 55 seats in the Senate.
Additionally, Republican Senate candidates in the southwestern battleground states of Arizona and Nevada are within firing range of their Democratic opponents, according to the memo. Arizona Republican Kari Lake defeated Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), 45% to 49%, but left office. Army Col. Sam Brown (R) has a five-point lead over Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada), 43% to 48%.
