Caucus participants are setting out in subzero temperatures to cast their first votes in the 2024 presidential election. New records were set for snowfall and temperatures in the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses.
“I've never experienced minus 15 degrees in my life,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at an event in Altoona last week.
“It's going to be very cold. I don't even know what minus 15 degrees is,” former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley told Iowans attending an event in Ankeny.
Former President Trump said at a Clinton rally: “The trip I just took was one hell of a trip.'' “You could see it snowing, it could rain, you could see it all.”
Former President Trump, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are vying for the Republican presidential nomination. (Getty Images)
Live Blog: Trump, Haley, DeSantis clash in Iowa caucuses, 2024 Republican presidential election
Candidates are being forced to adjust their schedules due to the winter storm. President Trump was forced to cancel several events and hold telephonic rallies. Haley also held a telephone town hall after a series of cancellations.
“I have to tell you, I'm not in South Carolina anymore. It's unbelievable,” he told attendees at the Waukee event.
Mr. DeSantis also had to cancel events and reschedule them due to weather. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, despite canceling his own event, criticized the cancellations of other candidates.
“Some people got hit with a snowstorm, and events in northwest Iowa have been canceled,” Ramaswamy told a rally in Sioux City the day before he canceled events in Coralville and Burlington. “There were four events. We're keeping it that way. We can't deal with snow and we're not ready for Xi Jinping. That's my view.”
Ahead of Mr. Ramaswamy's interview in Dallas County, the Republican candidate's bus was unable to travel from Sioux City to Des Moines because of black ice.
Some fear it will affect turnout, as candidates already have less interaction with voters and cooler temperatures threaten.
“For some of us who have been involved in this process for a long time, it's a little bit worrying because there are some older people who vote, and sometimes if the weather is bad, they don't vote,” said the Iowa Republican. said the former co-chair. David Orman said. “I'm hopeful and just a little while ago I thought we might have a record turnout because of the weather.”
For most Republican caucus participants, early voting or voting by mail is not an option. Instead, you will have to brave inclement weather to participate in person.
“The difference between the caucus process and a primary is that you have to physically be at the precinct's caucus location at a specific time,” said Leo Landis, a historian with the Iowa Historical Society. .
Donald Trump arrives at a campaign event at Simpson College on January 14, 2024 in Indianola, Iowa. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Caucuses are run by political parties, and primaries are usually run by the state. The Iowa Republican Party has more than 1,600 locations.
“People come together and sit in a room or a classroom or a public building and talk about the campaign,” Oman said.
Representatives of candidates often give speeches in an attempt to sway caucus participants who have not yet made up their minds. Caucus participants then voted using secret ballots.
“Sometimes it's pre-printed and you check your name, and sometimes you just write your name on a piece of paper,” Landis said. “This is the oldest way the nomination process took place, where neighbors would come together to promote a candidate or cause they thought was important and try to persuade their neighbors.”
They also elect delegates to the county convention. This is the beginning of a multi-step process that includes selecting delegates to the Republican National Convention. These people are sure to support the winner of the Republican caucuses in Milwaukee this summer. However, this was not always the case. The 2012 Iowa caucuses brought major changes to the Republican Party.
Mitt Romney originally intended to defeat Rick Santorum.
“In 2012, there was a little bit of a glitch where Mitt Romney won by eight votes,” Oman said.
Approximately two weeks after the results were announced, a new tally revealed that Mr. Santorum had received more votes than Mr. Romney.
A quick guide to the Iowa caucuses and this year's predictions
The final winner will change again during the Republican National Convention. Delegates were not required to vote for Santorum or Romney at the convention, so they could switch their preference to Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
“Congressman Paul understood how a contentious convention could lead to different nominations,” Landis said. “Delegates are supposed to be fixed, but nominations at party conventions have fluctuated.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis arrives at a campaign rally at Thunderdome on December 2, 2023 in Newton, Iowa. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
In the 2016 election cycle, the Republican National Committee made sure that delegates were tied to the candidates they were assigned.
“That's what it was, especially in the 1970s, when the Reagan-Ford campaign wasn't really locked down until the national convention,” Landis said.
Democrats do not have binding delegates, but they dramatically changed the process in response to issues that plagued their 2020 caucuses.
“I can't talk about the 2020 Democratic nomination process without saying it was a huge failure,” Landis said.
The party was unable to determine a winner due to a glitch in the app it used to record and report results.
“They didn't report their votes because they didn't have them,” Oman said.
They ultimately released tallies showing former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg narrowly defeated Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“The three-day waiting period and perhaps the problems with where the votes were counted and the exact number of delegates in the caucus didn't make the Iowa Democratic Party look very good,” Landis said. .
While some have criticized both processes, Iowans argue that their first-in-the-nation status will help increase voter turnout.
“Certainly there are limits, but you don't get more than 50% of the voters in a primary, so the people who are in the caucuses are actually engaged voters,” Landis said.
It is unclear whether Democrats will once again hold Iowa as the number one state in 2028.
Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event at the James Theater in Iowa City on January 13, 2024. (Alex Scott/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump, Haley and DeSantis are in high contention as the Republican presidential race begins in the Iowa caucuses.
“I think it’s going to be a really tough push for Iowa Democrats to take it back,” Landis said.
Democrats were the first to push Iowa into the nation's first event. Republicans followed suit in 1976.
“In 1972, it was Edmund Muskie versus George McGovern, and Muskie was considered the front-runner for the Maine Senate,” Landis said.
South Dakota Sen. George McGovern campaigned heavily in Iowa. Although he did not win the caucuses, he far exceeded expectations and ultimately became the Democratic nominee in 1972.
“Mr. McGovern used Iowa to prove that he is a strong candidate,” Landis said. “And in 1976, it really became a national event for candidates.”
The winner of Iowa won't necessarily decide the candidate, but it will give them momentum. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won the caucuses and became Ronald Reagan's vice president. He was eventually elected to the White House in 1988. That year, Bob Dole won the caucuses with the help of a campaign manager from Iowa.
“We take politics very seriously because this process has worked for almost two generations,” Oman said.
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Trump leads in polls, but Iowa caucus attendees could help give another candidate the boost he needs to win the nomination or other important political positions there is a possibility.
“Iowa's role has a story that sometimes gets overlooked,” Landis said. “They show who is a great message, a great organization and a great candidate. [who] He could be a great candidate on the national stage.”
