A growing number of House Republicans say they know how the current government funding fray will end: a clear continuing resolution to extend the shutdown beyond Election Day.
The question is how Congress reached that conclusion.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, backed away from plans to vote on a conservative budget bill on Wednesday after it became clear the chamber lacked the Republican votes to pass it, putting the House back to square one with less than a month until the shutdown deadline.
Some Republicans are urging Johnson to try again to get the conservative budget bill approved, arguing that a successful attempt could strengthen the party's position in future bipartisan negotiations.
To make matters more confusing, former President Trump has urged Republicans to vote against any short-term funding bill that does not ensure “absolute guarantees about the security of our elections.”
But privately, some have concluded that a bipartisan stopgap is inevitable and that it’s best to end it sooner rather than later.
“We should bring in a clean CR for three months and move on,” one moderate House Republican told The Hill.
“The only way out of this is a clean Congressional Reform Bill,” another House Republican told The Hill, adding that the bill would need Democratic support to pass.
“And if you can't look in the mirror, admit that and get over it… then you have bigger issues within yourself and you're not putting your country first,” they added. “I think that's stupid… [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)]”Every time we give him something from this organization, he says he's never put it on the floor, and he's kept his promise and never put it on the floor. What makes this different?”
Even those who don’t want short-term CR see it as the ultimate end goal.
“He's probably going to have to come up with a clean bill at some point to get through the election, so it's going to be a very short bill, and there's no way the Senate won't accept it and then we'll be in lame duck status,” a third House Republican told The Hill.
Amid growing opposition from within his own party, Johnson announced Wednesday he was canceling a scheduled vote on his first attempt to avert a government shutdown, which would have combined a six-month shutdown with a Trump-backed bill that would have required proof of citizenship to vote.
It was a dramatic reversal from his previous position.
Just 24 hours earlier, the speaker had been adamant that the House would consider the bill, despite having enough Republican votes against it and facing Democratic opposition.
But hours before the vote, Prime Minister Johnson said he and his leadership team would spend the weekend trying to “build consensus” on the bill.
“We're going to continue to work on this. Our leaders are going to work hard and we're going to work on this through the weekend,” Johnson said.
It's unclear whether Republican leadership can salvage the six-month-old CR and Protect American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) bill packages, which have faced broad opposition including from hard-line conservatives, defense hawks and moderate Republicans.
Another option, as suggested by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), the stopgap measure's lead sponsor, is a six-month consolidation without the SAVE Act, which would achieve conservatives' goal of avoiding a year-end comprehensive package and potentially usher in a new Trump administration with more conservative funding priorities.
But the six-month deadline itself has faced much opposition from both parties.
Defense hawks have expressed concern about the impact of not increasing Pentagon spending for six months, which would lock in higher spending levels through next March than many Republicans would like, and Democrats have called for the government funding process to be completed by the end of the year.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, called on leaders of both chambers of the budget to sit down to the negotiating table, while urging Republicans to abandon a go-it-alone strategy and start building a bipartisan agreement.
“Chairman Tom Cole [(R-Okla.)]Chair Patty Murray [(D-Wash.)]Vice Chair Suzanne Collins [(R-Maine)]”President Trump and I will begin negotiating in good faith on an ongoing solution to ensure the government programs and services Americans rely on continue to function while we complete our work on the annual budget by the end of the 118th Congress,” she said in a statement Wednesday.
Sens. Cole and Collins also extended the six-month deadline. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Cole said lawmakers should focus on completing the funding work and “try to do it as quickly as possible.”
“Personally, I don't think it's a good idea to immediately create a fiscal crisis for a new president, and we're going to have a new president,” Cole said, “But honestly, it's probably going to depend on who wins the election. Congress is always happy to pass the ball if they want to.”
Prime Minister Collins echoed similar sentiments earlier this week, telling reporters she wanted temporary measures in place until December.
“I think we should get the job done as quickly as possible,” she said.
The longer Republicans take to put together a strategy, the better the chances of a clean CR, Rep. Steve Womack (R-Arkansas) told reporters.
“Then you add in the influence of a former president who is basically advocating a government shutdown, and that complicates things,” Womack said.
As the debate over government funding strategy drags on, Republicans are feeling a sense of déjà vu.
A year ago, Republicans in the House were unable to pass a partisan continuing resolution, including a Republican border bill, due to Republican defections, forcing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to pass an extension bill with Democratic support, a move that led to a revolt by eight Republicans, leading to McCarthy's removal from office and Johnson becoming Speaker of the House a few weeks later.
“Many of the amendments reflect the reality that one house of Congress is narrowly divided while the other party controls the White House and the Senate, so I don't think it would make much difference to the outcome no matter who the speaker is,” the Republican said, adding that he was hopeful for clean amendments that could be passed with Democratic cooperation.
Those disputes are part of the reason many House Republicans privately argue that a clear continuing resolution is almost certainly a last resort.
“The Senate passed a clear CR through Dec. 15. We'll adopt it,” another moderate Republican told The Hill when asked what the next step in the funding process should be.
Even Roy, the lead sponsor of the SAVE Act, predicted Wednesday that the process would end with a bipartisan continuing resolution, an acknowledgment of the reality of funding the government in a divided Washington, where Republicans hold a slim majority in one house of Congress.
“It's likely that we'll end up extending the deadline until December and he'll be out of town campaigning,” Roy told conservative radio host Dana Loesch on Wednesday.
While some Republicans are coming to terms with where things stand, others are still hoping the House will pass a conservative budget bill and work to improve their party's stance in future negotiations.
Meanwhile, Roy said Wednesday that despite the bleak outlook, he still hopes the CR Plus SAVE Bill will be introduced in Parliament.
“Unfortunately, several of my colleagues, including some of my conservative colleagues, did not like the idea of voting in favor of CR, so at this point we do not have enough votes to make it happen,” Roy said.
Other House Republicans have argued that there is enough time between now and the Sept. 30 government shutdown deadline, a 10-day legislative period, for the Republican conference to reintroduce a conservative spending bill.
“I think there's still time, and I think he should see if he can find a landing spot with House Republicans,” said one Republican lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
But ultimately, Republican lawmakers predicted the measure would be a stopgap measure until December.
“We're hopeful that we can get a deal done before Christmas and have both houses ready to negotiate after the election,” said a House Republican. “Speaker Johnson doesn't want to be tied down to a package. He split the package in two last year and was successful in getting an agreement.”
One final House Republican speculated that Johnson pushed the conservative voting bill without intending it to become law.
“I think the chairman was always aware of CR. [plus] “The SAVE Act will likely never pass the House and will never pass the Senate, but we needed to be seen to be trying and we always had to submit a clean CR,” the Republican said in a text message.
