Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to take the stage for the first debate next week, a setback that could throw him off track in his race against President Biden and former President Trump.
Biden, an independent candidate, is determined to debate his Democratic and Republican rivals in Atlanta on June 27. But time is running out to reach the polling and delegate thresholds that Biden and Trump are already ahead of by a midnight deadline on Thursday.
Failure to meet the eligibility criteria would be the first major blow for third-party candidates struggling to maintain their presence in the 2024 election.
“While it is not impossible for Kennedy, it is unlikely that any nominee other than Biden or Trump would meet these requirements,” CNN wrote in a memo over the weekend outlining the schedule for opening statements and commercial breaks.
CNN is not changing the terms: Candidates still need to receive at least 15 percent support in four polls and win enough state votes to secure 270 delegates to attend the forum, which will be moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.
Given time constraints, cable news networks largely gave up on a last-minute appearance by Kennedy, who has alleged without evidence that the candidate and journalists had rigged the rules to tilt the odds against him.
The 70-year-old environmental lawyer has had a tough road to appearing on the ballot so far, which is likely a key factor in him missing the deadline: Candidates registered with both major parties don’t have to petition to appear on the ballot, so the state-based process has not been much considered during recent election cycles.
But for Kennedy, an independent, the road to the general election has meant learning state laws and the nuances needed to secure votes — all under a tight deadline: The debates add additional time pressure to the process, making it nearly impossible to secure 270 delegates at this point.
The secretary of state has flexibility in deciding when to count and certify a candidate’s materials. Kennedy claims to have produced enough state ballots to receive enough electoral votes to win the November election (his campaign website lists 310 potential electoral votes), but most of the states he claims to have access to will not recognize his claim until the end of the race.
Voting experts say poll workers often prioritize accuracy over speed and don’t face the same time pressures as candidates.
“I don’t think anybody is doing anything against him,” said Scott Tranter, an analyst and adviser at Decision Desk HQ, which is tracking Kennedy’s 2024 presidential ticket with The Hill. “I think they’re just trying to do everything by the book.”
The networks in charge of producing the debates can also exercise discretion in what they consider fair to ask of the candidates to compete in front of television audiences.
“They’re making their own rules,” Tranter said of CNN, which released its criteria in mid-May. “They’re the ones who decide who’s eligible and who’s not. They’re the ones who decide what the rules are today and if they’re the same rules tomorrow.”
A Biden source within the Democratic Party offered a more blunt prediction about Kennedy’s chances of meeting the deadline within 24 hours: “He won’t be onstage,” the source said.
The anti-establishment candidate’s almost certain defeat in the first round doesn’t paint him in a good light, and some Democrats say it points to the broader problems he faces with fundraising and public perception.
“This plays into larger patterns of visibility,” said a Democratic source who supports the current president’s reelection bid.
While access to the ballot is the most obvious barrier, Kennedy’s failure to clear the prerequisites to vote could also be a sign of wavering support.
“Losing poll numbers, financial difficulties, problems with ballot access – all of this will make it hard for Trump to make a case for victory at a time when attention is finally turning,” the Democratic source added.
Polls aren’t necessarily clear on how Kennedy would change the outcome of the fall election, or if he would even get that far. If Trump and Biden were to face off in November, a DDHQ/The Hill polling analysis shows Kennedy giving Trump a boost at the national level. But when broken down into key battleground states like New Hampshire and Michigan, some polls show Kennedy giving Biden an edge.
Kennedy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from The Hill about whether he still believed he had a path to the debate or whether he was planning a rival show that night.
For now, campaign officials are pursuing legal action. Last month, the campaign filed a lawsuit with the Federal Election Commission, alleging that Kennedy was awarded a “different standard” than other candidates, in violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act. The lawsuit is ongoing but could be resolved before the next debate, scheduled for September with ABC News.
But with less than a full day left before the 12 a.m. deadline, Kennedy is limited in what he can do. Some who support some of the aspects of his untraditional candidacy say he should make the most of staying away from the stage to demonstrate his outsider status.
“I definitely think he should,” said Cenk Yugar, a left-leaning media personality who has met Kennedy personally and recently hosted him on his show, “The Young Turks.”
“It’s borderline fraud to not allow someone to participate in the debates when they have double-digit votes. What else would they have to do to qualify?” Wigger said.
Wigger said he was open to offering his platform to Kennedy if he wanted to air another show that night. “I’m open to doing whatever show that is,” he said.
One ally who recently advised Kennedy on messaging issues added that “he absolutely should make some noise” while Biden and Trump are sparring.
For others, the real test will come after the election is over, when candidates have a chance to bolster and maybe tweak their campaign narratives based on what viewers saw in front of them.
“Debate expectations have more to do with the narrative before and after the debate than the performance,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Democratic observers are waiting to gauge Biden’s sharpness and stamina, and whether Trump will hurt himself with an uninhibited performance, as he did in the first debate between the two in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump’s supporters are preparing for another night of action against a sitting president they see as inherently weak.
That doesn’t leave Kennedy with much room to maneuver.
“No candidate, win or lose, is going to see a surge in popularity as a result of their performance in the debate. That popularity will spread online, through campaigns and networks before and after the debate,” Ceraso said.
But if Kennedy turns failing to qualify into a personal grievance, he may have a chance to create repercussions behind the scenes. Some believe his best bet is to win by losing.
“That’s what RFK is betting on. The only way he can win is if his supporters believe he’s been denied entry to the debates because of unfair rules and a system that’s tipped against him, and he underperforms,” Ceraso added.
