The latest polls from the Democratic National Convention show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck-and-neck nationally, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent departure giving the Republicans a slight advantage.
Trump held a slim lead over Harris in head-to-head contests, 49% to 48%, but when third-party candidates were included, the vice president won 47% to 45%. According to a study by Echelon Insights:.
Kennedy, who stopped campaigning last Friday and endorsed Trump, received 4% of the support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each received 1%. Exact figures for independent Cornel West were not released.
After Kennedy dropped out of the race, Trump gained about three percentage points, tying him with Harris at 48% each, followed by Stein, Oliver and West at 1% each.
Trump supporters say Kennedy has “suspended” but not “canceled” his campaign, and has dropped out of the race in about 10 battleground states, which they hope will give Trump the momentum he’s looking for.
Kennedy plans to continue running in many states where the race is less competitive.
The Democratic National Committee downplayed the development, circulating a memo from adviser Ramsey Reed that listed various data points and concluded that his departure “wouldn’t change anything.”
According to Echelon Insights, symbolizing the polarization in the country, 52% of respondents viewed the Biden-Harris administration as a “largely failure” (15%) or a complete failure (37%), while 45% rated it as a “largely success” (28%) or a complete success (17%).
When Harris was removed from the question and voters were asked specifically about the “Biden administration,” their responses became slightly more positive, with 52% saying it has been a complete failure (35%) or mostly failure (17%), while 46% said it has been a complete success (15%) or mostly success (31%).
When asked about President Trump, 50% said they strongly or somewhat approve of the way he is performing as president, while 49% said they disapproved.
Meanwhile, 50% strongly or somewhat approve of Vice President Harris’ ability to perform her job, while 48% disapprove.
Harris’ performance ratings had been low for a long time before she replaced President Biden as the top Democratic candidate.
Biden’s approval rating was 43% somewhat or strongly approved of, while 55% somewhat or strongly disapproved.
Eighty-nine percent of voters said they were very (77%) or very motivated (12%) to vote in the Nov. 5 election, while 4% said they were not very (2%) or not at all (2%) motivated to vote.
The Echelon Insights poll was conducted Aug. 23-25 among 1,031 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Trump allies have called Harris’s popularity surge in the weeks after Biden abruptly dropped out of the race a “honeymoon” or a “sugar high.” Harris has positioned herself as an underdog in the race.
Senior advisers to President Trump told reporters last week that they believed her “honeymoon” had largely died down by the time Democrats met in Chicago.
Currently, Harris leads Trump nationally in head-to-head matchups by 1.5 percentage points. According to RealClearPolitics: Tabulating opinion polls.
In the race for fifth place nationally, her lead grew to two percentage points. RCP TabulationBut that still includes Kennedy to a large extent.
Polls in battleground states show more mixed results, but Trump RCP Note Up Projection Map.
