When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. introduced his 2024 running mate last month, his allies expected the kind of excitement that often follows big campaign announcements.
That bump hasn’t materialized.
Even after announcing lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his running mate, the independent candidate was trailing President Biden and former President Trump by a wide margin, leaving Democrats wondering if he had reached his limit. ing.
“I don’t think Kennedy’s support in the polls has much to do with who he actually is as a candidate,” said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst who has been monitoring this year’s presidential race. “It’s just based on dissatisfaction with the prospective candidates of the major parties.”
“I don’t think his activities will attract that much public attention. His choice of vice president is politically unknown,” he said.
President Kennedy, who seems to be everywhere in the media these days, had a chance to make a difference in the past two weeks. Since announcing Shanahan, a millennial patent attorney and California megadonor, at a March 26 rally in Oakland, Calif., he has appeared on cable news several times. She was originally scheduled to appear with him during the FOX News hit, but NBC News reportedbut Kennedy appeared alone.
He is touting that his campaign will be on the ballot in every state and that Americans dissatisfied with Biden and Trump will be able to vote for him and Shanahan as third-party options in November. .
However, Shanahan himself has yet to discuss the matter much. President Kennedy chose the 38-year-old technology lawyer because of his experience with emerging technologies such as AI, and spoke positively about his environmental track record and inquisitive mind, he said. She boasts a compelling personal story of a harsh upbringing at odds with an elite family and growing up on welfare. She was probably chosen to round out his ticket in the gender and age department.
After the launch event, one person familiar with the campaign’s deliberations over the search for a running mate said Shanahan’s choice is likely to gain momentum once voters have had a chance to learn more about Shanahan’s background. Stated.
“Not much is known about her. They have a real opportunity to introduce her to the rest of the country in a very spectacular way,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss his thoughts on the decision. said a person involved.
Sources say Shanahan is someone who has “the whole deck stacked against her” and has risen to become “a living embodiment of this American dream that is evaporating for so many people.”
“I think this will resonate with a wide range of voters,” the official said.
But polling so far suggests that Mr. Shanahan has not done much to boost Mr. Kennedy’s campaign. An average of Decision Desk Headquarters and The Hill polls examining the three-way race between Kennedy, Trump and Biden found little noticeable movement in favor of independent candidates.
In the three-way matchup, Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Biden, 42% to 41%. Kennedy is a distant third with 8%.
Polls released since Shanahan’s announcement vary, but none show his approval rating approaching 20%, which is roughly the ceiling he has reached since announcing his candidacy. It becomes. An Emerson College poll released Thursday gave him an 8% approval rating, up slightly from 6% in the same poll in March. Both polls showed Trump narrowly leading Biden.
Kennedy supporters had been heavily promoting Kennedy’s vice presidential announcement for days before the announcement, with some speculating that his nominee would be controversial NFL star Aaron Rodgers, and public opinion That’s why the survey didn’t grow.
But in the end, Kennedy chose Shanahan, a well-known name in Silicon Valley but unknown to most Americans.
Ms. Shanahan achieved some national fame after her marriage to Google co-founder and now ex-husband Sergey Brin, which provided her with a wealth that helped her make their first joint foray into national politics. was able to obtain it.
Perhaps the biggest barrier to general election success for both men lies in their efforts to gather signatures and prepare for legal issues that may arise at the state level.
“Money is no longer an issue now, the whole game changes,” the pro-Kennedy official said optimistically.
But Democrats have publicly questioned what role Shanahan will play in the campaign. Strategists are paying particularly close attention to Mr. Kennedy’s bid, noting that Mr. Kennedy’s financial affairs have changed significantly and that opposition scrutiny has flooded the region.
Some Democratic operatives have noted that increased coverage of Kennedy in the media, with or without Shanahan, creates additional challenges for him. For example, his campaign has come under intense scrutiny for sending an email soliciting funds to the January 6th participants while referring to them as “activists,” although a spokesperson later said this was intentional. He said it was not.
“More coverage in the last week explains why Trump defended his position on January 6th and publicly acknowledged that his campaign staff were trying to help him win.” That meant they had to spend more time doing it,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic campaign strategist.
Some of Mr. Shanahan’s previous comments came under closer scrutiny after he was announced as Mr. Kennedy’s running mate. Democrats attacked her stance on IVF, which she said earlier this year was “one of the biggest lies being told about women’s health today,” according to the newspaper. Australian Financial Review.
“Shanahan’s history of attacks on IVF is extremely unpopular and further illustrates how extreme the RFK Jr. ticket really is,” Schwerin said.
Some observers say the polls show little precedent, especially amid concerns among Democrats that Trump’s allies are trying to boost him under the guise of supporting the former president. We warn you not to leave it there.
“I’m not sure we can really trust the validity of the RFK-related polls at this point, especially when we know the Trump campaign is doing everything in its power to support his candidacy,” the Progressive said. Democratic strategist Hassan Martini said. I lead the No Dem Left Behind group.
“I rely more on primary research, which is based on hundreds of conversations I have with independent voters every week,” Martini said. “Few people bring up RFK. When he is talked about, it’s always about his past actions that qualify him to think he can be president, apart from his last name.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Shanahan hinted that he would soon play a larger role in the campaign.
“While Bobby is now on TV spreading our message, I’m working behind the scenes to ensure we get to the polls in all 50 states,” Shanahan wrote on social platform X. It’s a country talking to Americans about the most pressing issues facing us. I can’t wait to share it with you all soon. ”
While Kennedy’s team works toward voting access goals, Democrats are trying to highlight how they believe Kennedy is aligned with Trump.
Kennedy’s campaign manager said this week that a consultant hired to work on voting access efforts in New York said Trump supporters share a “common enemy” against Biden at the White House. He has publicly announced his goal of winning the championship.
“It’s one thing to be an Internet conspiracy theorist,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist. “It’s another thing to do it on a national stage as a presidential candidate. It’s clear this is not a candidate or campaign ready for prime time.”
“Mr. Kennedy has used his last name and the support of Mr. Trump’s donors to get to where he is in the polls,” he said.
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