Fun time is over guys, let’s move on to the main topic of fantasy drafts.
No more chasing incremental value in the last few rounds, you can finally order your players from a menu in the early rounds.
For example, Christian McCaffrey will be the No. 1 overall pick, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson will be first round picks, and Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor will be second round picks.
We’ll get straight to the point about Jameel Gibbs.
Picking Travis Aten or Isaiah Pacheco in the mid-to-late second round would be great, or Derrick Henry shortly after.
Third place would be James Cook, Joe Mixon or Alvin Kamara.
In case you missed them all, it’s De’Von Achane or Josh Jacobs.
They’ll wait for Rhamondre Stevenson in the fifth while leaving Rachard White for someone else in the third.
Wow. That’s fun. It’s fun to talk about the guys that were picked in the early rounds.
But when it comes to running backs, there aren’t many guys to dislike in the early rounds.
If you do select one or more, you expect all of your early players to perform, so your main concern will be making sure they stay healthy.
Most of them are, anyway.
There are a few guys we’re actively avoiding – we have concerns about Gibbs at No. 1, White at No. 3 and Achan at No. 2, and we’re also mostly avoiding D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Brooks and Nick Chubb.
Swift is in a crowded backfield with a ton of weapons and no clear idea of how the Bears will use them. Plus, Swift faltered behind a better offensive line last year.
Brooks missed the season opener due to a collegiate ACL injury he suffered last November and will join one of the league’s weakest offensive teams.
Likewise, it’s unclear when Chubb will return to the field and what he’ll look like when he does.
But it’s not all expensive steaks and overpriced pork: there are some affordable snacks to choose from.
Fantasy Football DVQ Commentary
Hop out the pool, open your vacation suitcase, fire up your laptop and get ready: fantasy football season is back.
Fantasy Madman is back with the latest instalment of DVQ.
The Draft Value Index is a player rating system that assigns one universal number to every player that predicts the point in the draft when a player’s projected production will match up with his estimated draft pick value.
Because the disparity between the top production levels is large, the disparity between the top ranked DVQ values is also large.
A player’s projections take into account playing time, expected usage/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance, and injury history. DVQ measures these projections against the player’s schedule and takes into account position depth and replacement value.
These ratings are updated regularly.
David Montgomery’s average draft position has increased following news of Gibbs’ hamstring injury, but Montgomery remains a bargain at this point.
Even if Gibbs is 100%, I don’t expect him to disappear from the game plan, so anything less than that will add an extra boost to D-Mont.
But beating him in the fifth or sixth round may be a thing of the past.
Raheem Mostert is aging, has had numerous injuries, is expected to produce fewer touchdowns and is playing on a team with more weapons, including another explosive running back in the same backfield.
But he usually wins the seventh round.
Like Montgomery, he won’t fly under the radar, and at his current price, he’s a bargain.
As we’ve seen with Hall and Barkley in recent years, it often takes a while for running backs to recover from serious knee injuries.
And Chubb suffered a pretty nasty injury in Week 2 last season.
He’s unlikely to return to his best form this season and is almost certain to be sidelined for some time.
Jerome Ford had a good season last year and is expected to do the same this year.
Do you bet on the NFL?
It’s rare to find the kind of volume he gets until round 10. Even two rounds earlier than that, volume like a feature back is a gift.
Devin Singletary is here, and there aren’t any big names in the backfield competing for touches, so even if he’s only middling in efficiency, he should still get enough points above his eighth-round ADP.
Remember that leap Hall made at the end of last season?
He predicted Javonte Williams could take a similar leap in 2022 with the extra time he has following a knee injury.
With an ADP between the seventh and eighth rounds, he could be an absolute bargain.
The obvious players not to overlook in the current draft standings are James Conner (5th round), Brian Robinson (8th round), Tyjay Spears (8th round), Chase Brown (9th round) and Ezekiel Elliott (10th round).
