Surge in Jihadist Terrorism in Africa’s Sahel Region
Experts assert that the departure of U.S. and European troops from the Sahel region in Africa, replaced by Russian mercenaries, has resulted in an increase in jihadist-related violence. The Sahel, stretching across several countries from west to east under the Sahara Desert, reported a staggering 3,885 deaths linked to terrorism in 2024, comprising about 51% of global terrorism deaths.
In countries like Niger and Mali, military regimes that gained power through coups have expelled Western forces. The U.S. halted its anti-terrorism drone operations in Niger after a decade there, and French troops withdrew from Mali after nine years of combat against Islamist militants.
To ensure their safety, these governments have turned to the Kremlin’s private mercenary group, the Afrika Korps (previously the Wagner Group). However, reports indicate that their primary focus is on exploiting mineral resources, rather than effectively combating jihadism.
The common people in the Sahel often suffer most from these attacks. Just last month, armed Islamic militants on motorcycles assaulted the village of Tillaberi in Niger, resulting in 22 deaths, including 15 family members attending a child’s naming ceremony. In January, it was reported that Russian mercenaries, operating alongside government forces in northern Mali, executed ten civilians—including a toddler.
In August, the Observer Research Foundation noted that both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked groups are extending their influence in the Sahel by exploiting governance voids and the weaknesses of local security forces. This expansion now threatens coastal West African countries like Benin and Togo.
Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, commented that the deterioration in the Sahel, particularly in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, has accelerated since the U.S. and France ended their missions there. He remarked that the prior conditions were already dire, but the withdrawal has exacerbated jihadist advances.
Roggio highlighted that the local al-Qaeda affiliate and the Islamic State have gained crucial territories, with military regimes in the affected countries seeking to expel Western influence, instead relying on Russian support, ironically now labeled the Afrika Korps.
Furthermore, he pointed out that the Russian military is less motivated to prioritize security for civilians—focusing more on securing profitable mineral resources. This not only fuels the jihadist insurgency but also places civilians in precarious situations amid conflicts between jihadists and ineffective governments. The U.S. has limited avenues to intervene, as the existing regimes are adverse to Western presence and it remains uncertain whether the U.S. or France are inclined to return.
France Cronje shared insights on Niger’s scenario, indicating that prior to the 2023 coup, a well-orchestrated political and media campaign was launched to sway public opinion against Western influence, often invoking themes familiar to anti-colonial discourse in the West.
Cronje asserted that the stabilization efforts by France and the U.S. were marred by perceptions of imperialist intervention. The combination of dwindling resources and military strains in the fight against jihadists made their positions increasingly untenable, irrespective of any coup.
He echoed Roggio’s observations about Russia’s intentions, noting that while they are filling the vacuum left by Western countries, their goal is primarily resource security, rather than protecting civilian lives.
While it’s difficult to determine if this situation could have been avoided, some believe that it would have required a significant political and media campaign to foster public support for Western involvement, alongside a pro-Western governmental establishment, and an increase in military presence—an endeavor seen as overly ambitious by Western powers.
A spokesperson from the State Department commented that the U.S. has approached engagement with Sahel countries pragmatically, emphasizing the alignment of foreign policy with counterterrorism priorities, and recently enhancing collaborations with regional officials to address strategic objectives and mitigate threats to American personnel and interests.
