Russia’s ‘divisive terrain’ in Bakhmut

Generals and their planners during combat operations often look to points on the map. Capturing those points can lead to “decisive” strategic or tactical results. From a Western military perspective, Bahmut offers neither.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin unwittingly changes what he foolishly believed by his vain fixation on a small salt-mining town in eastern Ukraine.decisive terrain” into a highly “disruptive terrain” that threatens to tear apart his combined military and mercenary ground forces fighting in Ukraine.

The first battle to secure the city from Ukraine and establish a firm Russian foothold in the Donetsk region was a grand one between Evgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and Putin’s forces over political points in Moscow. erupted into a serious clash. As a result, the Russian unity of command (perhaps one of the most important principles of warfare) is undermined and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will seize the initiative and have the opportunity to drive Russian ground forces out of the Donbass region if he chooses to do so. Serving Ukraine.

The Battle of Bakhmut and its control of 16 square miles is now 10 months old, and apart from the complete demise of the town, President Putin has little to show for it. What was once a prosperous industrial town is now an endless array of interconnected trenches and battle positions. The streets and fields are littered with destroyed tanks, armored personnel carriers and corpses. Advance is measured in feet and is slowly gained by exhausted men engaged in fierce and violent melee combat.

By all accounts, thousands of people lost their lives and limbs because of a few meters of ground and the ego of one man, Putin. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 191,420 Russian soldiers They have been “eliminated” since the start of the special military operation on February 24, 2022, with 90,000 occurring on the battlefields around Bahmut since January 1, 2023.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby provided a much different estimate, putting the number of Russian soldiers killed in action since December at “more than 20,000” and as many as 80,000 wounded. Most of these casualties occurred in Bahmut, half of the casualties were from the Wagner group.

Regardless of which presumption you believe, one thing is clear, as Kirby and the Pentagon pointed out. Russian offensive We’re screwed. The city’s importance to Putin and the Kremlin continues to baffle Western military analysts, but the outcome is likely to contribute to Russia’s success or failure in Donbass and the end of the war.

In addition to the loss of life, the Battle of Bakhmut strained relations between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.of growing hostility This is evidenced by reports of a firefight between Wagner Group forces and Russian forces in Luhansk on 23 April.

The Wagner Group has had more success in Ukraine than any of Russia’s elite units (Spetsnaz, Airborne, or Naval Infantry), and is expected to win by May 8, just in time for Putin to win the Soviet Union. , creating a rift between two competing factions. May 9th Day Parade. Every day that goes by without victory allows Russia’s national propaganda and millbloggers to join their withered views. In a stalled offensive, both sides are trying to shift the blame onto the other.

After months of complaining about the lack of ammunition and artillery support, Prigogine is beginning to realize its futility of the situation. His loss has become unsustainable. On April 28, he told a blogger: We will be history and don’t worry. Things like this happen. ”

On April 30, Prigozhin took it up a notch, threatening: withdraw his mercenaries Born in Bahmut. “Every day we put thousands of bodies in coffins and send them home,” said Prigogine. “If our ammunition shortage is not replenished, we will be forced to either retreat or die in order not to run like cowardly rats later.”

Prigogine may have ulterior motives.he may be looking maintain his army If Putin and his generals fail, it could be a bigger prize, thus becoming a modern-day tsar of the Russian Empire.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is in a position to turn Russia’s “dividing ground” in Bakhmut into a “definitive ground” in Kiev and accelerate the timeline for Moscow’s withdrawal. local counter attack We are regaining lost territories daily, but their momentum is limited, allowing the Russian army to reset and try again the next day. This reminds me of Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day”. In that film, Murray learned from his experience and used his knowledge to his advantage. Eventually the Russians will too — one notable example is his Russian daily casualties It appears to be on the defensive after dropping more than 30% in April.

To take advantage of Putin’s “divisive terrain” in Bakhmut, the Biden administration, NATO and the European Union (EU) must further coordinate aid to Ukraine. It’s time to focus on the tools you need to win, not just the amount of military hardware.

The EU will put an end to the disagreements that divide it, Joint purchase of ammunition For Ukraine — and stop tripping over France’s short-sighted assertion that all munitions production and arms supply chains are European. Get the ammunition Ukraine needs now.

The US should be able to launch ATACMS on the HIMARS it provided to Ukraine. After that, you’ll need to get his F16, which you’ll need to accurately hit deep targets.President Biden should listen to the president’s advice General Christopher Cavoli, Commander, United States European Forces Commander, Europe’s Supreme Allied Commander-in-Chief – directing NATO Allied Forces Command operations. We will lead head-on and help Ukraine win the war.

It’s time to transform Putin’s “divisional ground” in Bakhmut into a “decisive ground” for Kiev and the Western world as a whole.

Retired Army Colonel Jonathan Sweet served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years. His background includes service in the 101st Airborne Division and Information Security Command. From his 2012 to 2014 he headed the U.S. European Command’s Intelligence Operations Division, working with his NATO partners in the Black and Baltic Seas. follow him on twitter @JE Sweet2022.

Mark Toth is a former economist and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and international commerce. He is a former officer of the World Trade Center in St. Louis and has lived in US diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. follow him on twitter @MCTothSTL.