Experts told Fox News Digital that the direction of the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war will largely depend on whether Congress can overcome its hesitance to continue aid as fatigue sets in.
Kenneth J. Braithwaite, former Secretary of the Navy in the Trump administration and former ambassador to Norway, argued that “America’s partnerships and alliances have never been more important than they are now.”
“Communism is alive and well and we are standing up to it as Russia goes to war against Europe and China seeks greater global influence,” Braithwaite said. . “That means Americans need to look beyond their borders and think about how to protect themselves from these pressing challenges, starting with one of our greatest force multipliers: our sovereignty. It must start with our partnership and willingness to stand united against authoritarian threats.”
The second year of the invasion of Ukraine was truly chaotic. It began with what appeared to be a catastrophic setback for Russia when Wagner’s most important army turned traitors and attempted to march on Moscow. Wagner chief Evgeny Prigozhin died after his plane exploded, killing him and all his passengers.
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A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier drives on a road in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, March 3, 2023. (Anatoly Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to be able to rally and repel the Ukrainian counterattack, much to the displeasure of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. President Putin, growing confident in his position, refused to renew a UN-backed agreement to secure access to grain shipments via the Black Sea and attacked Ukraine.
Ukraine counterattacked with a spectacular naval effort that destroyed more than a dozen Russian ships in the Black Sea, forcing the fleet out of the western part of the sea and allowing Kiev to establish its own grain corridor.
As the dust settles after a roller-coaster series of events, the third year of the war remains vague and dependent on two major developments. Both Russia and Ukraine will seek to overcome war fatigue and gain significant advantages. And Ukraine’s chances depend largely on whether it can overcome U.S. Congressional reluctance to continue aid to Ukraine, with no clear end in sight.
A Ukrainian soldier fires a cannon near the eastern city of Bakhmut during heavy fighting with Russian troops in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, May 15, 2023. For months, Western allies have been shipping billions of dollars worth of weapons systems and ammunition. It was urgently dispatched to Ukraine to deliver supplies to Kiev in time for the expected spring counteroffensive. Well, summer is only a few weeks away. Russia and Ukraine are focused on a fierce battle for Bakhmut, but Ukraine’s spring offensive has not yet begun. (AP Photo/Rivkos)
“This is a difficult year for Ukraine, due in part to starvation of shells and manpower shortages, the former partly due to delays in U.S. aid,” said John, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Mr. Hardy said. He told Fox News Digital on the Russian program.
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“No matter what happens with U.S. aid, this is always going to be a tough year,” Hardy stressed. “Delays in Congress made things even worse. So Ukraine will try to hold on and get through 2025 at the beginning of this year. If we prepare this year — Ukraine will regain the advantage. I think you can.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson to discuss additional support from Congress. (Courtesy of Chairman Mike Johnson’s Office)
“But it obviously depends on whether the right decisions are made and implemented this year.”
Congress has failed to approve a new aid package that would provide Ukraine with much-needed defense equipment, munitions and air defense systems. An unusual Sunday vote in the Senate on Feb. 11 to join forces with Israel and other U.S. allies to provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion for Kiev and other aid. Support measures for Ukraine were promoted.
Several holdouts in Congress, including Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio; Josh Hawley, Republican, Missouri. and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) oppose continued aid to Ukraine.
President Trump said nearly a year ago that he could end the war in Ukraine, but has yet to provide specifics.
File On Thursday, November 24, 2022, the Grad multiple rocket artillery of the Ukrainian military fired rockets at forward Russian positions near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (AP Photo/LIBKOS, File)
Mr. Vance argued that “unrestricted, unspecified aid to Ukraine with no goal in mind” made little sense, while Mr. Tuberville argued that “agriculture costs to American farmers should be deducted.” He claimed that he found it difficult to continue “paying Ukrainian farmers.” [to] next year. “
Mark Green, president and CEO of the Wilson Center and former administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under President Trump, said he supports continued aid to Ukraine. He worried that “standing by and allowing Putin’s forces to win will embolden our rivals in other regions.”
An apartment building was damaged by a Russian rocket attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in the early hours of January 17th. (Kharkov Regional Administration/AP)
“What President Putin fears more than anything is the success of democracy at our borders,” Green told Fox News Digital. “That’s why his invasion of Ukraine was more than just a military invasion. He destroyed infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainians and weaponized food to punish those who supported Ukraine.”
“He is trying in every possible way to undermine Ukraine and the rules-based system we created. That’s why the United States needs a wide range of tools for Ukrainians to protect themselves. The world is watching.”
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President Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview this week with Bret Baier, Fox News’ chief political anchor and editor-in-chief of “Special Reports,” that without help, Ukraine will have difficulty maintaining its defenses against Russia. Stated.
President Zelensky claimed that Russia had lost five troops for every Ukrainian, and stressed that Russia’s only major achievement in the past year was the capture of the city of Avdiivka, near Donetsk.
Turning to the third year, FDD’s Hardy said Russia faces potentially catastrophic problems in the coming months while Ukraine lacks consistent US support to overcome war fatigue. I was concerned about this.
A woman walks between apartment buildings destroyed by Russian artillery fire on July 26, 2022, on the outskirts of Odessa, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Michael Stekel)
“I think both sides have structural human resource problems where they are unable to rotate their forces and their militaries are becoming increasingly exhausted,” Hardy said. “Although both countries have mobilized, they have not mobilized enough troops to actually take tens of thousands of troops off the front lines and keep them on hold for months on end.
“People on both sides may be able to take a week off here and there, but it’s not a true force rotation where you can give someone a date and say, ‘This is the deployment period, and when it’s done, you’re done.’ ,”’ he added. “So it hasn’t affected morale.
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“Both sides are struggling with that. For Ukraine, the problem is youth mobilization. And for Russia, this is just one example of the political risk, and just one example of the economic risk of new mobilization. No,” Hardy added. “So I think we should pay attention to those points.”
Ukraine will seek to resolve this issue by amending the mobilization law, as members of parliament are resisting several measures, including raising the conscription age, but the conscription law has been amended several times. It’s progressing slowly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Victory Day military parade commemorating the 78th anniversary of the end of World War II on Red Square in Moscow on May 9, 2022. (Dmitry Astakhov, Sputnik, Kremlin pool photo, via AP)
President Putin has issued a decree that will increase the number of troops by about 170,000, bringing the total number of troops excluding confirmed deaths to 1.32 million, but if verified, that total number will be significantly reduced.
The Kremlin has gone to great lengths to make the public understand that this expansion does not signal the impending implementation of the draft, but after Putin promised not to do so in 2022. When we started the expansion, it turned out to be very unpopular.
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President Putin on Friday pledged to continue improving Russia’s military capabilities, including its nuclear capabilities, which would remain modernized and in good condition, according to Reuters.
“We will continue to strengthen our military in all possible ways, including by incorporating practical experience and through continued rearmament and modernization efforts,” Putin said.
“Today, the share of modern weapons and equipment in strategic nuclear forces has already reached 95%, while the naval part of the ‘nuclear triumvirate’ has reached almost 100%,” he added.
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Zelensky will continue to fight for support and persuade parliament to support Kiev, even though the immediate situation remains uncertain as his country faces an existential crisis.
“My message is that if they want to be very realistic, the price we are asking for support now will be lower than it will be in the future. “We just want to live, to survive,” Zelenskiy said in an interview with buyers. “We don’t have [an] Alternative. “
