There are few worse picks in the sports world than being pegged as a quarterback bust in the NFL. This odor is very difficult to get rid of completely, and very few people are able to get rid of it completely. Over the past three seasons, we've seen the career resurgences of Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold. Both are former top draft picks who were once seen as potential franchise-saving quarterbacks, but were ultimately made into scapegoats and ousted from their former teams. He sought them out as his savior.
There is historical precedent. Jim Plunkett was drafted No. 1 overall by the New England Patriots in 1971, but failed to win in five seasons in Foxborough. After landing in San Francisco and spending two seasons with a combined record of 11-15, Plunkett headed further south in California to the Oakland Raiders, where he would become a legend. The Stanford product led the Raiders to two Super Bowl championships in 1980 and 1983.
Tommy Maddox was a first-round pick by the Denver Broncos in 1992 and was considered the successor to John Elway. But what happened instead was that Maddox replaced Elway, went 0-4 as a rookie, and left the NFL after the 1995 season. He entered the XFL in 2001, winning the Most Valuable Player Award and leading the Los Angeles Extreme to the XFL Championship. This attracted the attention of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Maddox helped lead them to the playoffs in 2002.
But as the NFL has become the pass-heavy league it is today, these stories have become less common than they used to be, and we've become further and further apart between them. First-round picks were given at most two to three seasons to prove they had what it took to be a franchise quarterback. Honestly, it makes sense. Teams aren't going to spend six months deciding whether a player is good or not. If it takes that long, there's a good chance your quarterback isn't that player.
Until he did. with another team. As we've seen with Mayfield, Darnold, and Smith, this is the flip side of the coin.
Since taking over as the Seahawks' starter in 2022, Geno Smith has thrown 56 touchdowns and was a Pro Bowler in each of his first two seasons, with a good chance of making it three years in a row if he continues to play. be. Among quarterbacks who have played at least 250 snaps in that span, Smith ranks third in completion percentage above expectations (CPOE).
Mayfield became the Buccaneers' starter in 2023. In his first year in Tampa, the former No. 1 overall pick led the Bucs to the NFC South title, a playoff victory over the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and a win over the Detroit Lions. The team barely made it to the divisional round. Mayfield ranks ninth in adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play entering 2023 (minimum 250 plays). He's as confident as ever with 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2023 and now on pace for 4,218 yards and 42 touchdowns.
Sam Darnold, a fellow player in the 2018 NFL Draft, is the latest example of a player who has made the leap late in his career. After playing for three teams in six years, Darnold appears to have found the perfect spot in Minnesota. His Vikings are one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL, and Darnold has completed at least two touchdown passes in four of their five wins. His 103.4 passer rating ranks sixth in the NFL and 11th in the league in CPOE, one spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
So how does this happen? A fairly simple explanation from Darnold's head coach, Kevin O'Connell, is the easiest way to decipher it.
“I believe organizations will fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks will fail organizations.”
And when you look at all three of these quarterbacks, it's hard to agree.
Smith was drafted by the New York Jets in 2013. In four years, with Rex Ryan and Todd Bowles as head coaches and Marty Mornhinweg and Chan Gailey as offensive coordinators, he went 12-18 as a starter. Defensive-minded head coaches and over-the-hill OCs who favored the 8-ball when it came to modern soccer.
Darnold was also drafted by a poor Jets team that had Todd Bowles as its head coach before hiring Adam Gase in 2019. That lasted all of two seasons until Gase was fired and Darnold was traded to the Carolina Panthers.
Mayfield was drafted by a Browns team that had arguably the worst head coach of all time, Hue Jackson, fired midway through his rookie season. The Browns replaced Jackson with one-and-done Freddie Kitchens, then eventually hired Kevin Stefanski, resulting in Mayfield and Stefanski leading the Browns to their first playoff victory since the franchise's rebirth. led. And then in 2021 he got injured and the whole Odell Beckham thing The incident ended with Mayfield being the scapegoat after a 7-10 season. Mayfield had been on the trade market for months — no one needed him — before joining Darnold in Carolina.
All in all, it's amazing how much connective tissue these three have. Smith and Darnold were both drafted by the Jets. Darnold and Mayfield were traded to the Panthers in the same offseason. Both Smith and Mayfield were assisted by current Panthers head coach Dave Canales. Dave Canales was the Seahawks' quarterbacks coach in 2022 and the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator in 2023. All three have Todd Bowles as their head coach. Now, they've reached the light at the end of their respective tunnels and are in the midst of the NFC playoff race, with all three playing great games and leading their teams with records over .500.
So what does this mean? First and foremost, coaching is key. The trio found success when they found talented offensive minds to pair with, both as head coach and offensive coordinator. Dave Canales, Liam Cohen, Sean McVay, and Kevin O'Connell all deserve immense praise for their rise to power. It also means there are more players who could stumble as early draft picks get more opportunities. Players like Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones may initially bring in one of these offensive masters as a backup, but they will have the opportunity to shine in a system that suits them. given.
Not every draft class has Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and CJ Stroud. Furthermore, not every team is in a position to continue drafting a quarterback and restart this process on an ongoing basis, nor frankly not every team wants to do so. So they might utilize Mac Jones and build an offense around what he does well without asking him to do much. Regardless of who went where and how successful they were, teams and fan bases were all like, “Maybe X is going to be the next Geno Smith,'' or “We saw what the Vikings did with Sam Darnold.'' you would say. These three become prototypes for future repeating patterns. And it remains to be determined whether more teams will have similar success. But in a world where quarterback play and offensive success are more important than ever, sometimes you have to think outside the box.
