San Diego’s coastline is gearing up for some significant challenges as forecasts indicate the arrival of a Super El Niño.
This situation brings a mix of beach erosion, cliff collapses, and intense coastal flooding. Experts are expressing concerns that these factors combined could drastically reshape the area’s coastline for good, potentially altering southern California’s shores.
“Powerful waves can speed up the erosion of beaches and cliffs, plus cause extensive flooding. During strong El Niño events, sea levels along the California coast could rise by about 6 to 13 inches,” explained Adam Young, a researcher from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
“Together, these elements amplify the risks of coastal erosion and flooding during El Niño, threatening parks, beaches, vital infrastructure, highways, and even homes,” he added.
The California Coastline Survey, a state initiative based at the Air-Sea Interaction Laboratory at Scripps, has conducted six scans of the entire coastline since 2023. They plan to perform another survey in the fall of 2026 and spring of 2027 to evaluate the extent of coastal erosion driven by the impending El Niño.
In response to rising sea levels, the San Diego City Council approved its Coastal Resilience Master Plan in September 2025. This plan highlights areas such as La Jolla Shores, Tourmaline Surf Park, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach, and Sunset Cliffs as key sites for future projects.
City spokesperson Peter Kelly mentioned that the resilience initiatives at La Jolla Shores and Mission Beach are stuck at the conceptual stage due to funding challenges. However, the projects at Tourmaline, Ocean Beach, and Sunset Cliffs have made some progress, entering the initial engineering design phase.
Additionally, the city is working on installing sand berms along Mission Bay’s shoreline and at other beaches to mitigate the impact of heavy surf and reduce damage to the coast.
The vulnerabilities extend from North County all the way to the South Bay. Reports suggest that San Onofre State Beach is experiencing continuous erosion, which poses a risk to the sandstone base supporting Interstate 5.
Oceanside, meanwhile, is losing up to 6.6 feet of beach each year south of its harbor, necessitating substantial dredging efforts by the Army Corps, such as moving 236,590 cubic yards of sand in the wake of the 2015-2016 storm season.
At the same time, coastal lagoons face threats of blocked inlets as powerful waves deposit sand. Furthermore, the fragile bluffs stretching from Carlsbad to Del Mar are at risk of destabilization, especially when heavy rains coincide with wave action.
“Any homes perched on the cliffs are going to be in serious jeopardy this year,” warned Lisa Chaddock, a physical science professor at San Diego City College.
She pointed out that increased rainfall and rising sea levels could exacerbate South Bay’s sewage crisis by pushing pollution further north.
