and othersLast season, just 11.5% of goals scored in the Premier League came from outside the penalty area, the lowest figure recorded by Opta since the Premier League left the Football League in 1992. This is not a one-off phenomenon; there have been fluctuations but the overall trend over the past 20 years has been a decline in the proportion of goals scored from long distance. So the natural question is why? Is this the clearest evidence yet of the impact of data on football?
Its exact impact on how football at the highest level is actually played is difficult to measure, not least because clubs are keen to obscure any benefits they gain from analytics in order to preserve their competitive advantage.
Tactical analyst Michael Cox made an intriguing argument in The Athletic last week that, with one or two special exceptions, data doesn't have as big an impact on how games actually unfold as is often made out.
The proportion of shots taken from long distance in the Premier League has fallen by around a quarter over the last decade, so while it may be true that players are now more aware of the xG of shots from certain positions and adjust their behaviour accordingly, there are other suggestive details in the data on long distance goals.
Firstly, last season there were 143 goals scored from outside the penalty area, compared to 145 the season before and 144 the season before that, and 122 and 125 respectively in the two seasons before that. In absolute terms, the number of long-distance goals has not fallen, if anything, the number of goals scored from inside the area has increased. This may indicate an improvement in efficiency, but it suggests that the picture is more complicated than just the percentages.
Long-range goals peaked in 2006-07 (highest percentage: 20.2%) and 2007-08 (highest total: 191) before starting to decline in 2008, a tactically landmark year. Prior to 2008, there had been only one season with an average of more than three goals per game in the Champions League knockout stages. After that, the average never fell below three goals again until 2020-21. 2008 was also the year Pep Guardiola became manager of Barcelona.
Guardiola is the most influential manager of the modern era, having directly influenced two of the Premier League's leading managers, Mikel Arteta and Enzo Maresca, as well as spearheading a philosophical movement that began at Ajax in the late 1960s and whose members include at least six Premier League managers.
But there are indirect effects too. Look at non-league games and you'll see goal kicks being taken at short range and moves being built from deeper positions. Talented kids who are above average height and left-footed, regardless of position, are being converted to centre-back because there is a severe shortage of left-sided centre-backs for teams who want to play from the back.
From there, things start to get blurry. Could Guardiola have achieved all this? Do managers in the eighth and ninth tiers of English football really see themselves as mini-Peps? And if Guardiola is the reason for this change, why did it happen so quickly? How could he have been so influential in his first season as manager? This is not to say that Guardiola isn't influential; he is very influential. His success gives legitimacy to his methods and there will no doubt be lower league managers who have taken inspiration from him and his methods.
But there is also the issue of the environment. Guardiola did not operate in a vacuum. When he took over at Barcelona, the conditions were in place for his style of football to succeed: the pitch, the ball and the equipment were all at a level that allowed for tight, technical football. Rondo Changes to the offside rule expanded the effective playing area, and a crackdown on intimidating tackles made it harder for teams to bully smaller, more skilled players.
Guardiola made the most of it and perhaps defined in many people's minds what possession football could achieve in such circumstances. Without him, football may not have taken the direction it has, but at the same time, the era of Jose Mourinho and Rafa Benitez, and Greece's Euros-winning side, would also have come to an end.
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There has been a revolution in pitch preparation and hybrid surfaces, especially on lower level courses, are much more accurate and play longer. Whatever your intentions, and however fervent your faith in the philosophy, you just can't play it. Rondo On rutted crust and over oceans of mud.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from statistics on long-range goals is this: there are always multiple causes and it's never simple. Long-range shots have generally been fewer since the mid-60s and the number of shots needed to score a goal has gone down. Teams are passing more and shooting less.
All of this is consistent with the environmental factors that Guardiola benefited from. When the pitch or equipment is poor, it makes sense to advance the ball quickly. When hard challenges are part of the game, it makes sense not to hold onto the ball for long. When opportunities to shoot presented themselves, they tended to be worth trying. There is no point in making a couple of extra passes to gain a better position if you're likely to lose the ball to a bobble on the turf or a rough challenge.
But there are other factors at play: if the opposition plays a low block on the edge of their own penalty area, it may be worth attempting a 25-yard drive, if only because it will be so much harder to break through their block and create a higher xG chance.
The decline in long-range shots could be a sign of a stronger defensive line, but nothing lasts forever: 16.3% of goals were scored from outside the area at Euro 2024, and in this weekend's Premier League, that number rose to 14.5% in an admittedly small sample of three games.
Data is an understanding of what works and perhaps influences when a player shoots, but it also reflects how a player plays, which is influenced by a myriad of factors, environmental and philosophical. Relationships in soccer are rarely one-way; almost everything is connected.
