I was excited when the Mets acquired Paul Blackburn at the trade deadline because it took some of the pressure off players like Tyler Megill, Christian Scott, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea.
Manaea, the Mets’ starter on Monday, has been a regular fade-out candidate for me this year.
He continues to lose power with his sinker/sweeper combination, which has resulted in fewer ground balls (37%), fewer strikeouts (24%) and more walks (10%).
A 3.50 ERA looks decent, but it’s buoyed by a low BABIP (.265) and a high percentage of bases left on base (75%), which should push his ERA closer to the expected 4.30 as the season progresses.
In contrast, Andre Pallante, the Cardinals’ starter on Monday, should perform well late with a 4.04 ERA and a projected 3.56 ERA.
He is one of the best ground ball pitchers in MLB (62 percent usage rate), which is surprising considering how often he uses his four-seam fastball (51 percent usage rate).
Cardinals starting pitchers have the advantage in this matchup, and St. Louis relief pitchers have the seventh-worst ERA in the majors (3.62) behind Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero, while the Mets are 17th in the metric (4.11).
While the Mets have the better lineup, the Cardinals have consistently boasted above-average lineups and are trending upwards, posting a 110 wRC+ over the past month.
Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras have become more settled as the weather has warmed up.
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Ultimately, I think the Cardinals will have a pitching advantage through nine innings on Monday and the Mets just won’t have the offensive power at the plate to make up for it.
I’m betting on Pallante and the Cardinals to beat Manaea and the Mets.
Play: Cardinals Moneyline (-103, BetRivers)
